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Re: MICRO ----NEMO was right......../ kathy 

By: Decomposed in POPE 5 | Recommend this post (1)
Mon, 04 May 20 6:42 PM | 45 view(s)
Boardmark this board | Pope 5 		Msg. 60595 of 62138
(This msg. is a reply to 60590 by micro)
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micro:

Re: "As other people will catch this virus, do you think that number of NEW cases wille xceed the number of existing cases that people are recovering and no longer contagious? ... Your thoughts?"I've been tracking world stats on COVID-19 since January 21st and on recoveries since February 5th. Recent numbers... keeping in mind that China's numbers are rubbish... show the virus to be spreading at roughly 80,000 cases per day and recoveries coming at roughly half that. So, yeah, I think the number of cases will continue to grow. (See my spreadsheet, below.) Recoveries are accelerating though... while new cases are static. Maybe in a few weeks a balance will be achieved.

The U.S. may be a different story; I don't know. I haven't been tracking the U.S.

It occurs to me that "recovered" is not synonymous with "not contagious." It only means that a test does not detect the virus. The tests, unfortunately, are not very accurate. There are many cases of people testing positive in hospitals days after they tested negative. I've heard that the only reliable test is a CAT scan of the lungs. Obviously, not many people with mild cases are being given CAT scans, so there may be far more people walking around spreading the disease than we think.

Second, I'm reminded that 54 of the Diamond Princess's 712 cases remain active. (4 are serious.) That's after close to 100 days! Are they still contagious, or are they just being treated for lung damage? I don't know the answer and I don't think a definitive study has given us an answer for how long after "recovery" people remain contagious. I will say this, though: If those 54 Diamond Princess patients are still contagious, then it means that a whole lot of people labeled as "recovered" are still spreading the disease.

Lastly, I'll note that Singapore, which was so impressive in its early containment of the disease, is now struggling. It has over 18,000 cases and more than 3,000 per million population - which is comparable to the U.S. This makes me think that COVID-19 is far from over.




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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: MICRO ----NEMO was right......../ kathy
By: micro in POPE 5
Mon, 04 May 20 5:50 PM 		Msg. 60590 of 62138

De
Reasonable.

Question .

As other people will catch this virus, do you think that number of NEW cases wille xceed the number of existing cases that people are recovering and no longer contagious?

I see this in that light. I think that an equal amount if not more are coming off the sick list than new cases will be added on. In which case the hospitals will be less and less occupied and fewer and fewer beds taken...

Your thoughts?

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