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Breaking precedent, White House won’t release formal economic projections this summer that would forecast extent of downturn
The president’s aides will not publish updated economic forecasts, citing volatility in U.S. economy
By Jeff Stein and Josh Dawsey
May 28, 2020 at 10:05 a.m. EDT
White House officials have decided not to release updated economic projections this summer, opting against publishing forecasts that would almost certainly codify an administration assessment that the coronavirus pandemic has led to a severe economic downturn, according to three people with knowledge of the decision.
The White House is supposed to unveil a federal budget proposal every February and then typically provides a “mid-session review” in July or August with updated projections on economic trends such as unemployment, inflation and economic growth.
Budget experts said they were not aware of any previous White House opting against providing forecasts in this “mid-session review” document in any other year since at least the 1970s.
Two White House officials confirmed the decision had been made not to include the economic projections as part of the mid-session release. The officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, said that the novel coronavirus is causing extreme volatility in the U.S. economy, making it difficult to model economic trends.
The document would be slated for publication just a few months before the November elections.
“It gets them off the hook for having to say what the economic outlook looks like,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a former director of the Congressional Budget Office who served as an economic adviser to the late senator John McCain (R-Ariz.).
Both liberal and conservative critics said the White House should publish its economic projections in line with the precedent set by prior administrations, regardless of the uncertainty caused by the pandemic. The White House under President Barack Obama continued to release these numbers during the Great Recession, although they were unflattering.
This year’s White House budget report is expected to include data on federal spending, along with information on enacted legislation, but not an annual federal deficit projection, the White House officials said. The officials said the White House will release the annual deficit for the year by the end of the fiscal year in October.
more:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/28/white-house-coronavirus-economic-projections/
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