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Re: Covid-19 Update 

By: Zimbler0 in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (1)
Fri, 12 Jun 20 1:48 AM | 56 view(s)
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Msg. 01833 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 01790 by Decomposed)

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Except . . .
That we know the Chinese are under-reporting their
sickness and deaths . . . And that many places in
the United States are over-reporting deaths.

Add in the (probably) legions of folks who got it
but never showed any symptoms . . .

Bottom line I don't believe any numbers anybody
is putting out.

What really sucks is that so many people can tell
so many lies and nobody gets punished for it.

Zim.




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Mad Poet Strikes Again.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Covid-19 Update
By: Decomposed
in 6TH POPE
Thu, 11 Jun 20 3:35 AM
Msg. 01790 of 60008


There are about 7 and a quarter million known cases of COVID-19 worldwide, but we now have enough time under our belts to start using CLOSED cases in an attempt to hone in on just how bad this thing really is. There may be many, many more cases due to people who never showed symptoms or whose infection was not detected in a test. Accepting that fact for what it is but still pressing on...

Of the 7,237,929 cases, there have been 409,630 deaths. Out of all the closed cases, that's about 10 percent mortality. But there are 3,263,207 OPEN cases. What if they all get better? In the unlikely event that were to occur, then we'd divide 409 thousand by 7.24 million and have a case fatality rate of 6.7 percent.

It's hard to say what the rate would be if the unidentified cases were to be included. Lower, but how much lower is anybody's guess. the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) is based on known cases though, and it looks like the CFR is going to float in somewhere between 6.7 and 10 percent.


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