July 9, 2020
Model That Has Predicted the Last 25 of 27 Presidential Elections Correctly Has Trump Winning...By A Lot
by Nick Arama
RedState.com
President Donald J. Trump and First Lady Melania Trump attend the 2020 Salute to America event Saturday, July 4, 2020, on the South Lawn of the White House.
We’re still months out from the election, but if all you did was look at the polls, you might be discouraged about the chances of reelection for President Donald Trump.
Most of the polls have him behind Biden and not looking good.
But of course as we know, polls are not particularly accurate and 2016 is a perfect example of that, especially when many seem to be slanted or often agenda-driven.
It’s hard to know how the pandemic, not to mention the riots and chaos being propagated by the radical left, are going to affect the election.
If you blame the party in power, that might adversely affect Trump and that’s what the polls may be showing. But if you see that he’s far better to bring the economy back and is already doing that, if you see that voting for Joe Biden and Democrats would open the door for even greater destruction and chaos from the radical left, then it would seem that that should push those in the middle toward Trump. I personally know folks in the middle or who were liberals who couldn’t stand Trump but now not only will be voting for him but pushing for him. Because they’re so outraged at what has been happening on both those fronts and the Democratic reaction to it all. Will that “silent majority” be speaking in November for Trump?
There is one model that says that the answer to that is yes, and by a lot.
In May, Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth said his model was predicting that Trump would win.
Now he’s doubling down on the prediction, even after the pandemic and riots.
From Fox News:
Mediaite reported on Wednesday that Stony Brook professor Helmut Norpoth is doubling down on his “Primary Model,” which has correctly predicted five out of the past six elections since 1996 and every single election but two in the past 108 years.
“The Primary Model gives Trump a 91 percent chance of winning in November,” Norpoth said. “This model gets it right for 25 of the 27 elections since 1912, when primaries were introduced.”
As Mediaite noted, the two elections the model failed to predict were the 1960 election of John F. Kennedy and the 2000 election of George W. Bush.
Norpoth’s model is based upon performance in presidential primaries as the strongest indicator of the ultimate outcome.
If in fact that’s the measure, then there’s no question that Trump trounced Biden big time in terms of enthusiasm. Trump had record turnout of folks in the primaries even when he was the guaranteed winner. Biden in the early primaries had real trouble until South Carolina and is still only the Democratic choice because he was less objectionable than Bernie Sanders, albeit not by much. It would be really hard to say that anyone is enthusiastic about Joe Biden.
What favors Trump in 2020 as well is the cycle of presidential elections operating for nearly 200 years, as illustrated by the snapshot since 1960. After one term in the White House the incumbent party is favored to win re-election unlike the situation when it has held office for two or more terms.
Norpoth’s model predicted Trump’s victory nine months before the election in 2016 and he predicts Trump will win by an even wider margin than he did then, 362 votes versus the 304 he had then. If you thought they cried then, just wait if that happens in November, the meltdowns are going to be historic.
http://www.redstate.com/nick-arama/2020/07/09/model-that-has-predicted-the-last-25-of-27-presidential-elections-correctly-has-trump-winning...by-a-lot/
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