A new model often cited by top health officials raised its projections Friday, predicting over 410,000 coronavirus deaths nationwide by January 1.
That would mean an additional 224,000 Americans lost in the next four months -- more than double the 186,000 deaths reported by Johns Hopkins University.
The model from the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation points to declining mask use in some regions from a peak in usage in early August. The scenarios in the model suggest 122,000 of those lives could be saved with near-universal mask use. It also warns the death toll could be much higher -- over 620,000 -- if all restrictions are eased.
"If a herd immunity strategy is pursued, meaning no further government intervention is taken from now to Jan 1st, the death toll could increase to 620,000," according to IHME's briefing.
IHME expects the death rate could reach an unprecedented 3,000 a day by December, due in part to "declining vigilance of the public."
http://www.cnn.com/2020/09/04/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
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