The government dramatically underestimated job growth this summer
Initial reports underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 over four months
By Andrew Van Dam Reporter
Yesterday at 6:00 a.m. EST
The government sharply underestimated job gains for most of 2021, including four months this summer in which it missed more job growth than at any other time on record.
In the most recent four months with revisions, June through September, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported it underestimated job growth by a cumulative 626,000 jobs — that’s the largest underestimate of any other comparable period, going back to 1979. If those revisions were themselves a jobs report, they’d be an absolute blockbuster.
In an average month before the pandemic, estimates would be revised by a little over 30,000 jobs, or just 0.02 percent of all the jobs in the United States. The recent revisions to the jobs reports have been much larger.
The missing jobs surfaced through revisions to the widely watched non-farm payrolls number that BLS releases each month. The data is considered preliminary until it has been revised twice. The fixes are typically minor, but recent revisions have been big enough to turn a substantial slump into a surprising surge.
more:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/11/16/government-underestimated-job-growth/
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