Fizzy: “I think there is a very good chance Russia will defeat the US without needing to use any conventional weapons at all.”
De: The country that tops the U.S. will do so with a world's-best economy.
That's your definition of victory and defeat, not mine. Having more consumers (useless eaters) isn't much to brag about.
Your definition is artificially narrow and not, I think, particularly useful in this context. I think you already know that. Russia doesn't have to replace the US as the biggest consumer in the world; it just needs to knock the grossly obese Uncle Sam on his fat ass. At that point the obese, effete, socially-fractured, arrogant Uncle Sam can't get back up. Contest over. Russia walks away.
Consider the Roman empire. Various small tribes of "heathens" skirmished with the Roman military over a period of time. Eventually, Rome was forced to pay tribute, which led to bankruptcy. The Roman empire continued with various short term "emperors" for many decades, but there was no going back. Rome collapsed on its own weight after being given just a little shove. The barbarians didn't have to become the new biggest consumer; they never had the means for that and maybe didn't even care. But they certainly defeated the Roman empire.
You think a 30 Trillion US debt is bad ? The real number is probably far higher than that, but gets into unfunded liabilities, etc. So, let's go with a conservative, officially acknowledged, $30T. $30T at even 10% APR would need $3T/year of INTEREST only. We both know the US can't pay that.
But it's worse. Consider that it is *commonly* assumed that 40-60% of USD are held overseas for trade. I just read that the actual percent is probably 72%. I read, from another source, that $22T of USD is held overseas for purposes of trade. Note that the inability to accurately assess just how underwater we are isn't a good thing -- it implies the problem is incalculably high and impossible to adequately defend against...
Foreigners hold these dollars NOT as an investment (they don't pay a real return; the longer you hold them the more you lose) but only for trade. Most of that trade is between one foreign country and another foreign country. The dollars are only as an intermediary, and to access the US SWIFT system. The SWIFT system runs on US Dollars.
Now imagine a new system opens up. Any new system, as long as it is at least as trustworthy as US dollars and the US Empire can't destroy it down fast enough.
All that is required to defeat the US, at this late juncture, is for Russia to not collapse and, instead, successfully sell its net exports using a SWIFT alternative. If China and India trade with Russia using that system, and continue to do that, the US is already defeated, even if it doesn't know it yet. If Saudi Arabia or some European countries go along, it is game over *really* fast.
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