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Re: Musings about peak oil  

By: fizzy in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (1)
Wed, 25 May 22 6:37 PM | 19 view(s)
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Msg. 32261 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 32259 by fizzy)

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If I could go back and edit my post I would do that to soften the tone a little. The people on this board are all in the top 50%, and likely the top 10%, of human intellect.

But humans are not good at deeply understanding some things. Compound interest is one. EROEI is another.

I suspect that many WEF participants long ago concluded that if nobody but them can figure out the climate change is 'code speak' of peak oil and most of the rest can't figure out that availability and economic cost are *irrelevant* than...well, obviously...most of humanity needs to be treated like a mushroom and worked around and RULED. Ruled by THEM, of course, since they are the only 1% who passed the intelligence test.

Question your premises. DEEPLY understand EROEI and the physics and other factors in play here, including the history. Pass the test. Panic early and avoid the rush.


I have come to realize that men are not born to be free. Liberty is a need felt by a small class of people whom nature has endowed with nobler minds than the mass of men. -Napoleon


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Musings about peak oil
By: fizzy
in 6TH POPE
Wed, 25 May 22 6:24 PM
Msg. 32259 of 60008

What seems to be totally missed is "financial cost" and "being there" are completely irrelevant to the critical question:

What is EROEI (Energy Return on Energy Invested). That question is actually the only thing that matters. If the NET energy extracted isn't a large muliple of the TOTAL ENERGY OF EXTRACTION (I mean, total--including energy for infrastructure, employment, etc.) then the oil is *technically* available but *practically* USELESS.

The Libtards can't figure out that "climate change" is a red herring (and an intelligence test) and "renewables" have a huge energy cost of their own which is generally well above the total energy which can be extracted from the renewable).

Most Repugs can't figure out that paper-dollar cost and existence are NOT a valid test for peak oil.

EROEI ***USED*** to be more than 100:1. Now it averages below 5:1 and rapidly falling. MOST new fields are (1) so small that they barely are worth the drill and (2) so bad on a straight EROEI basis that they ABSOLUTELY will never be worth the drill as a source of energy.

Why is that not understood? It's just basic physics. Are Repugs and Repug media not capable of understanding, or is there an active (subconconcious) fear of looking closely enough at the problem? Or is it something else? Magic thinking isn't thinking.

We are hitting the EROEI barrier. Below 5:1 oil becomes economically ***INCREDIBLY*** expensive. We are there. Below probably 3:1 it becomes likely not worth even attempting, because even solar and batteries do better.

PS. I am not the world's expert on this, so some of my thresholds (e.g., 3:1 not being worth attempting) are guesstimates.

But magical thinking and denial and 'someone will think of something' ARE the problem. This sort of low-wattage thinking is what got humanity to dig and bury itself in this physics hole. And, of course, short-term thinking is what animals do; why isn't humanity doing better than that?


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