http://newsletter.banklesshq.com/p/is-the-merge-priced-in?triedSigningIn=true
No, the article argues, it is not.
http://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ethereum-merge-priced
" ETH will shift from requiring ~$18mm of new money entering the asset to keep the price from declining to requiring ~$0.3mm exiting to keep the price from increasing.
To summarize, the staking rate and structural demand are lower than they were 6 months ago. However, this is to be expected in a period of slower activity, and if activity continues to rebound these rates will increase. The primary investment case remains the same, there is an enormous opportunity to front-run the largest structural shift in the history of crypto.
Another point that I think is often overlooked here is that the Merge is more than a shift in supply and demand. It is also a massive fundamental upgrade for Ethereum as the network becomes much more efficient and secure in many ways. This is part of what differentiates the Merge from prior BTC halvings."