Credible reports including Russian sources indicate Ukrainian force have crossed the Seversky Donets and Oskil rivers and entered Donetsk Oblast recapturing several villages. This is important because Putin promised to "liberate" Donetsk Oblast. I imagine the end of the war is still a long way off, but it has become clear that despite being much bettered equipped, the Russian military isn't as good as Ukraine's army. And the Russians appear to have deployed all their available troops. There are no meaningful reinforcements to send. If Russian units start cracking in the south like they did in the north, this could be over sooner than we think. And so we have to start thinking about what a Ukrainian victory will look like.
The great Anne Applebaum had an excellent article on this topic in the Atlantic yesterday.
"When I write that Americans and Europeans need to prepare for a Ukrainian victory, this is what I mean: We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.
To be clear: This is not a prediction; it’s a warning."
http://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/09/ukraine-victory-russia-putin/671405/
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