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Re: Looking at Ukraine in my crystal ball over the next few months

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 21 Sep 22 3:59 PM | 27 view(s)
Boardmark this board | The Trust Matrix 		Msg. 47172 of 54818
(This msg. is a reply to 47148 by Cactus Flower)
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No surprises about Putin's new position (see post to which I am responding). It's exactly as predicted, except the mobilisation of 300k Russians is also designed to increase the cost to Ukraine of continuing to fight.

I'm sure Biden has long since relayed to the Russians the rules under which they are operating. Go nuclear and we will respond by various means that are so scary you will regret what you have done.

I know Britain has done something similar. We launched nuclear subs with the instruction that if Moscow launches nuclear strikes on Britain, they will obliterate Russia.

This is all just Mutually Assured Destruction. Same as it ever was. The threats are a weapon to scare the general public.

The main rule of MAD is, don't launch a missile, idiot.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Looking at Ukraine in my crystal ball over the next few months
By: Cactus Flower in ALEA
Tue, 20 Sep 22 11:35 AM 		Msg. 47148 of 54818

The invasion of Ukraine was a strategic disaster for the Russians. Now they will try to reach a peace deal that crystallises their gains, even as they seem on the verge of losing them. They'll use nuclear threats to buttress their negotiating position. But Ukraine will rightly not accept the status quo, as they believe (as I do) that they will succeed in expelling the Russians and the nuclear threats are a dreadful bluff.

In the end, Russia loses Crimea and the Donbas. They don't have the economic strength to keep going. Whereas Ukraine is supported by the West, which can. And fingers crossed, we get a better, more friendly Russia after its defeat. The equivalent of what happened to Germany after World War II, when it finally realised that bullying and belligerence isn't a top strategy.

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