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Re: British pound plunges to new low as tax cuts spark concern

By: Cactus Flower in ALEA | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 26 Sep 22 4:53 PM | 20 view(s)
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Msg. 47259 of 54839
(This msg. is a reply to 47253 by Cactus Flower)

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The pound has now bounced back.

I always forget to say, as I always should, I don't have any idea what makes a market move on a day to day basis. Nor I think does anyone. Maybe today was mostly hedge funds doing what they do.

I still think it was a poor mini budget and I still think we have a sufficiently low level of debt probably to get away with it for a while. And we may just get lucky if the war ends soon. But even if we get lucky, it was a gamble and so it was a mistake.


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: British pound plunges to new low as tax cuts spark concern
By: Cactus Flower
in ALEA
Mon, 26 Sep 22 1:03 PM
Msg. 47253 of 54839

The dollar has been strengthening against everyone. It appears that Bidenomics is appealing from that perspective. There are benefits and costs to the US as a result. Your cheaper imports are our more competitively-priced exports, for instance.

But as your article says, there seems also to be an immediate negative response to the mini-budget that is specifically-focussed on the UK. I hope market actors are thinking like me, that they are sceptical of the economics, but that it's a move that she may get away with if the Russia war ends soon and we see a sharp recovery. That would stop the rot somewhat.

I still think that the UK's relatively low debt ratio will provide support and make the sale of gilts appealing; and I presume that the Bank of England will raise interest rates some.


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