I think something like this is VASTLY more likely than a break in -- which makes absolutely no sense for probably at least a dozen reasons.
First of all, you have to get past the oddity that Paul Pelosi keeps getting into "dramatic" scenes in the SF area. Did he get stinking drunk and crash his car because of MAGA? Geez, exercise a little ownership and commonsense.
Then, most suspect is that the seeming lack of security. A house like that, in SF, with a net worth in the hundreds of millions, with a public presence, and you didn't put even - say - 50K into an Elk M1 Gold system with AI cameras, audio sensors, whole house automation, programming and redundancy out the wazoo? Not POSSIBLE. Nobody could have gotten within 100 feet of that house without having triggered too many alarms to hide...UNLESS they were *invited* in.
We can go on from there easily enough. But Pelosi should release the full surveillance tape. If she tries to say there isn't one, she is lying through her teeth. And you should use Occam's razor directly.