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Re: Question for board: Does anyone know any Dems who expect to win big tomorrow? 

By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (2)
Mon, 07 Nov 22 10:35 PM | 32 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 37150 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 37147 by Fiz)
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fizzy:

Re: “Obviously (at least I think it obvious) I expect in any half-honest vote count, the Repubs are going to take both the House and the Senate tomorrow.”I don't think the Senate is obvious.

Republicans hold polling leads in seven states, but they are TINY leads. Except for J.D. Vance in Ohio, I think the leads are all within the polling margins of error. Now consider early voting. Did Republicans have those leads when early voting began? Maybe not in which case early votes could swing elections to the Democrats.

I think the most likely outcome - if cheating isn't a factor - is for Republicans to win a seat in Ohio but lose a seat in Pennsylvania. Of the remaining five, I think they'll win four and lose one, but maybe three and two. Maybe. I've definitely got my fingers crossed.

I've heard that Republicans will win 25 to 45 seats in the House. But considering earlier mid-term results, I'd say anything less than 40 will make the Democrats happy. (2018, Trump's party lost 40. 2010, Obama's party lost 63. 1994, Clinton's party lost 52. 1974, Gerald Ford's party lost 48 - and that was in Watergate's aftermath!) Less than 40 might even make them celebratory. After all, things are SOOO much worse in the country today than in any of those earlier years that a swing of 100+ is warranted. If only people voted with their brains instead of their party loyalty.







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The above is a reply to the following message:
Question for board: Does anyone know any Dems who expect to win big tomorrow?
By: Fiz in 6TH POPE
Mon, 07 Nov 22 9:59 PM 		Msg. 37147 of 60008

Obviously (at least I think it obvious) I expect in any half-honest vote count, the Repubs are going to take both the House and the Senate tomorrow.

If EVERYONE expected that, I think it would actually provide pretty solid protection against cheating.

However, I have doubts that the rank-and-file Dems got the message. Or possibly the MAGA group is too optimistic. Or maybe I am just wrong in my sense...it isn't as if I am a pollster or have even sampled a lot of voters personally.

Does anyone have any reports that Dems expect to win big tomorrow? Armstrong said in his interview that Biden's ACTUAL approval ratings are something like 15%. I find that doubtful...but then what do I know?

Any rumors that Nancy Pellosi is packing bags or, otherwise, planning to have her Congressional office remodelled to a more expensive look? Any other hints?

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