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Re: Question for board: Does anyone know any Dems who expect to win big tomorrow?

By: Fiz in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 07 Nov 22 10:49 PM | 21 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 37151 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 37150 by Decomposed)
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Good points! I hadn't bothered to go back and look at typical House swings... So by that standard, MAGA isn't doing near as well as I had hoped, I guess.

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Question for board: Does anyone know any Dems who expect to win big tomorrow?
By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE
Mon, 07 Nov 22 10:35 PM 		Msg. 37150 of 60008

fizzy:

Re: “Obviously (at least I think it obvious) I expect in any half-honest vote count, the Repubs are going to take both the House and the Senate tomorrow.”I don't think the Senate is obvious.

Republicans hold polling leads in seven states, but they are TINY leads. Except for J.D. Vance in Ohio, I think the leads are all within the polling margins of error. Now consider early voting. Did Republicans have those leads when early voting began? Maybe not in which case early votes could swing elections to the Democrats.

I think the most likely outcome - if cheating isn't a factor - is for Republicans to win a seat in Ohio but lose a seat in Pennsylvania. Of the remaining five, I think they'll win four and lose one, but maybe three and two. Maybe. I've definitely got my fingers crossed.

I've heard that Republicans will win 25 to 45 seats in the House. But considering earlier mid-term results, I'd say anything less than 40 will make the Democrats happy. (2018, Trump's party lost 40. 2010, Obama's party lost 63. 1994, Clinton's party lost 52. 1974, Gerald Ford's party lost 48 - and that was in Watergate's aftermath!) Less than 40 might even make them celebratory. After all, things are SOOO much worse in the country today than in any of those earlier years that a swing of 100+ is warranted. If only people voted with their brains instead of their party loyalty.

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