Decomposed > I'll actually be surprised if there isn't a major Russian offensive this month.
Russia is going to make a 'major offensive'. . with what? Poorly trained conscripts?
In World War One what might as well have been 'poorly trained conscripts' went 'Over The Top' to be mowed down by machine gun fire. Ukraine has moved into the 21st century - drones to locate the Russian 'troops' followed by artillery or HIMARS (guided missiles) to obliterate the so poorly trained Russian conscripts that they don't even know to dig a 'fighting position' (better known as a fox hole).
As for Putin's nukes. . . Caving in to what amounts to nuclear terrorist threats is just an invitation for more such threats. I don't think Putin is crazy enough to actually use them.
Here is another article pointing out more of the Russian Army's problems.
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Logistics: The Ukrainian Logistics Advantage
http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htlog/articles/20221211.aspx
December 11, 2022
When the Russians invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the Ukrainian armed forces had nearly a quarter million personnel on active duty. Since then, Ukraine has added over half a million more personnel (volunteers and conscripts) and, unlike Russia, most of the new personnel did not go into combat units but were instead assigned to support units. These troops were often armed, because they frequently operated in a combat zone getting needed supplies of fuel, food and ammo to the combat units. The troops were also kept supplied with adequate cold-weather uniforms and other items that maintain health and morale. This included medical care and rapid movement of severe casualties to hospitals. The lightly wounded were treated and allowed to rejoin their unit. This is a common reaction of combat troops and Ukraine supplies the medical care that can determine which wounds are not debilitating and allow soldiers to quickly return to their units. Many combat injuries consist of concussions or flesh wounds that can be diagnosed and treated quickly.
Unlike the Russians, Ukraine support troops used forklifts to move ammunition and other supplies onto and off trucks. The Russians still do it by hand, which often means that it doesn’t get done if there are not enough troops to do it. The invading Russians forces had few or none of the support services Ukraine provides for its own troops. This has provided Ukrainian troops with a major advantage. Unlike Russian troops in Ukraine, Ukrainian soldiers suffer less from malnutrition, cold weather, and untreated wounds.
During the first few months of the war the Ukrainians had to improvise but they did so with the intention of keeping their casualties lower than what the Russians were suffering, and seeing to it that new or existing troops got the training and logistical support they needed to be most effective. Russia went in the opposite direction, providing less training and logistical support for new troops sent to Ukraine to replace their heavy losses. The Russian reinforcements suffered heavy losses from this lack of supplies, medical care and leadership. Many of these Russian troops surrendered or deserted at the first opportunity. Russian efforts to remedy this are disrupted by prompt and precise Ukrainian attacks on their supplies. Ukrainian troops survive longer in combat and suffer fewer casualties, which means the average Ukrainian combat soldier is more experienced, trained, led and supported than their Russian counterparts. Ukrainian forces are prepared for a winter campaign and Russian forces are not.
Unable or unwilling to train and support their troops as well as the Ukrainians have, the best Russia can do is offer to negotiate. The Ukrainians won’t do this unless the Russians agree to immediately start removing their forces from all Ukrainian territory they occupy. That’s fine with most of the Russian soldiers in Ukraine, but not with the Russian leaders back home who staked their reputations and positions on the ability to defeat the Ukrainians. Details of the treatment of Russian troops in Ukraine gets back to military-age (currently 18 to 50 years old) men in Russia and their families with predictable results. Opinion polls show declining support for the war in Ukraine, but a large minority of Russians still support it. As the losses in Ukraine grow, the support for the war declines and criticism of the Russian government grows.
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(Article does continue. Zim.)
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