Msg. 38517 of 60008 (This msg. is a reply to
38514 by
ribit)
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Decomposed > Tell me: How do you think it will end? Do you think Putin is just going to back out and apologize? I think the only way it can end is with Russia winning or Putin going down in a nuclear war.
How do I think it will end?
Scenario A: Putin begs, borrows, or steals enough non-nuclear weaponry to demolish Ukraine and its infrastructure to the point that the winter kills enough of the Ukrainian people that his poorly trained conscripts can 'take over' the place. With not enough manufacturing or other 'money making' activities left to make it worth the cost.
Scenario B: I'm sure Putin has the launch codes . . . but will the guys who need said codes to actually launch nukes - knowing it might be the end of Russia as 'they' know it - actually 'throw the BOMBs'? And is Putin threatening nukes because he has no other valid threats to use - but Putin knows that he can't afford to actually use them?
Scenario C: The Ukrainians finish driving out or killing all the Russian troops in Ukraine. Including Donbas and the Crimea. The rest of the world suggests 'peace talks' . . . With Russia realizing that the Ukrainians next step just might be annexing Russian territory . . .
At the moment Ukraine is NOT an existential threat for Russia. A lot of Russians have fled Russia to keep from being conscripted into the War effort. Putin trying to conscript more 'soldiers' means stripping men from their jobs and further hampering the Russian economy.
I read where Russia is 'wanting' peace talks. Russia appears to be trying to get some breathing room - to manufacture more munitions and try to train some conscripts to resume the War. Ukraine is not about to give the Russians that respite. The Russians have violated such 'truces' and promises of 'peace' all too often.
I see no good end for Russia in all of this. But I think Putin could order a withdrawal from Ukraine and still stay in power. He'd lose a lot of 'face' doing so but Russia itself would survive.
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