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Re: This Is BAD... 

By: Fiz in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (1)
Sun, 25 Dec 22 4:22 AM | 44 view(s)
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Msg. 38567 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 38558 by Decomposed)

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De,

Your post made me wish my math was stronger – especially in practical application. Although the formula of a circle (x^2 + y^2 = r^2) is not a exponentially compounding function (f(x)=a^x) the curve fit is still disturbing.

Here are some other charts on long term debt:
http://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/

I'm looking for a log chart of government debt, which would make exponential growth show as a straight line and give more meaning to what the current explosion means.

I also believe there are other metrics which should be kept in mind, such as debt to GDP trend. I'm going to continue looking for better graphs. I think it interesting that I am having a harder time than expected finding what I am looking for. It is almost as though nobody wants to talk to much about it in terms of HOW FAST this takes us to crack up boom.

Nobody has ever seen anything quite like this before. Yes, we can look to Weimar or to Zimbabwe, but those were more-or-less localized bubbles, not really so levered, and not nearly so interconnected with lots and lots and lots of other sick, unsustainable trends. In other words, there is no good way to escape this, although my advice is to get to a position where you have something to barter which s under your control and which has value in a primitive society.

 
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

― Herbert Stein, What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics, & Life


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The above is a reply to the following message:
This Is BAD...
By: Decomposed
in 6TH POPE
Sat, 24 Dec 22 9:37 AM
Msg. 38558 of 60008

The House just passed a $1.7 trillion "Omnibus" bill. I'm sure it will sail through the Senate and White House. As I read about it, I found myself wondering, "How long can this go on?" I've always known that things accelerate before a collapse, seeming (to most) to happen overnight... and I can tell that U.S. debt is indeed accelerating. It's obvious. You guys see it too. But just how quickly? What does the curve, extended into the future, look like? When will it go vertical? Ten years? Twenty? When it does, the dollar will be worth nothing and the United States as an economic force will effectively end.

This isn't rocket science but it's also not something most people like to think about. That puts it right up my alley. I can do this and I like to know the truth. So I nabbed the debt chart to the right from Statista.com. It's dated October 5, 2022 - BEFORE the latest Omnibus. I pulled it into Paint, extended the timeline to 2030, then overlaid it with the ellipse that "best fits" the curve. When does our debt chart go vertical? The answer, below, is beyond creepy. After all, I've always said that TEOTWAWKI is coming... but I didn't know when. Now I do.

Let me know if you guys see a flaw in the approach or with my reasoning.



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