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Re: This Is BAD...

By: Fiz in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 25 Dec 22 4:57 AM | 30 view(s)
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Msg. 38568 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 38567 by Fiz)

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This is an interesting site, with a graph of debt back to 1970 and easily modifiable data sets:
http://usgovernmentspending.com/spending_chart_1970_2027USb_24s2li111mcny_H0t

We know we we are well past the point where ANY country has ever recovered, on a debt to GDP basis, but we also know Japan has been beyond way beyond that point for probably 3 decades now and still hasn't gone full Zimbabwe.

We also know that we are way past the point where additional debt actually grows the economy. We are now into a tail wagging the dog phase, where NOT continuing to Ponzi at an accelerating rate causes implosion into a black hole.

We were overdue to switch to a new "system" of monetary fraud around 2003. I was quite surprised 2008 wasn't a lot worse than it was, as we actually didn't fix anything - but arguably only made the problem vastly worse and impossible to predict.

I think backing new money issuance with supposed "interest" is way past its expiry date. I expect the government to stop pretending to be "borrowing" and just start printing nakedly. Maybe they should just print $31 trillion+5%($31 Trillion) and pay off all the debt + current interest? Hmmm. So $31 Trillion at 5% is about 1.5Trillion INTEREST ALONE PER YEAR on existent debt.

http://cnsnews.com/article/washington/terence-p-jeffrey/4896119000000-federal-tax-collections-set-record-fiscal-2022. Hmm. Almost $5Trillion, so more than I expected - we are only WASTING 30% of "our" income per year on "credit card" interest! ;-).

By 2025, we should be well above 50% on your extrapolation, it seems reasonable (almost inevitable) say?

Can you imagine how exciting it is going to be living in the US, "Land of the Free and Home of the Brave", on - say - a government pension with medicare?

We need to keep digging on your chart! Finding a reasonable imputed compounding factor would allow us to be much more certain of timeline!




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: This Is BAD...
By: Fiz
in 6TH POPE
Sun, 25 Dec 22 4:22 AM
Msg. 38567 of 60008

De,

Your post made me wish my math was stronger – especially in practical application. Although the formula of a circle (x^2 + y^2 = r^2) is not a exponentially compounding function (f(x)=a^x) the curve fit is still disturbing.

Here are some other charts on long term debt:
http://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/

I'm looking for a log chart of government debt, which would make exponential growth show as a straight line and give more meaning to what the current explosion means.

I also believe there are other metrics which should be kept in mind, such as debt to GDP trend. I'm going to continue looking for better graphs. I think it interesting that I am having a harder time than expected finding what I am looking for. It is almost as though nobody wants to talk to much about it in terms of HOW FAST this takes us to crack up boom.

Nobody has ever seen anything quite like this before. Yes, we can look to Weimar or to Zimbabwe, but those were more-or-less localized bubbles, not really so levered, and not nearly so interconnected with lots and lots and lots of other sick, unsustainable trends. In other words, there is no good way to escape this, although my advice is to get to a position where you have something to barter which s under your control and which has value in a primitive society.

 
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

― Herbert Stein, What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics, & Life


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