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Re: This Is BAD... 

By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (1)
Sun, 25 Dec 22 5:15 AM | 68 view(s)
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Msg. 38569 of 58640
(This msg. is a reply to 38567 by Fiz)

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fizzy:

Re: “Although the formula of a circle (x^2 + y^2 = r^2) is not a exponentially compounding function (f(x)=a^x) the curve fit is still disturbing.”
Thank you for the reply.

It _should_ be disturbing. It should scare the hell out of anyone who understands it. It means that in 2 to 4 years, AT MOST, the dollar is going to get wiped out - losing, not some, but ALL of its purported value.

You're right that the curve shouldn't be circular. It should be an asymptotic curve... akin to the one displayed to the right. However, what I drew earlier isn't, as you suggested, from a circle. It's from an ellipsis. An oval. And the distinction between an asymptotic curve and the arc of an ellipsis can be almost impossible to see until it finally deviates when verticalness approaches.

The difference between elliptical and asymptotic curves can be significant. While I initially thought that an asymptotic curve made things even more bleak, it actually doesn't. It buys us additional time... but probably not very much. It's a distinction that won't be noticeable to the layman except at the extremes. Put another way, the fact that dollar debt is following an asymptotic curve and not an ellipse won't even matter until the end is nigh, when economic conditions are already very, very bad. See the image below of the same asymptotic curve, but turned and inverted with a full ellipse alongside. Notice that until the asymptotic line is nearly vertical, the elliptical arc is parallel to it.

For any who still don't understand, the original ellipse's arc shows the trajectory we are on and the proximity of dollar failure. It's showing not only that a tidal wave is coming to the bay where we live, but that it's already visible from the beach where we're standing. 2025 is just around the corner.





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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: This Is BAD...
By: Fiz
in 6TH POPE
Sun, 25 Dec 22 4:22 AM
Msg. 38567 of 58640

De,

Your post made me wish my math was stronger – especially in practical application. Although the formula of a circle (x^2 + y^2 = r^2) is not a exponentially compounding function (f(x)=a^x) the curve fit is still disturbing.

Here are some other charts on long term debt:
http://www.longtermtrends.net/us-debt-to-gdp/

I'm looking for a log chart of government debt, which would make exponential growth show as a straight line and give more meaning to what the current explosion means.

I also believe there are other metrics which should be kept in mind, such as debt to GDP trend. I'm going to continue looking for better graphs. I think it interesting that I am having a harder time than expected finding what I am looking for. It is almost as though nobody wants to talk to much about it in terms of HOW FAST this takes us to crack up boom.

Nobody has ever seen anything quite like this before. Yes, we can look to Weimar or to Zimbabwe, but those were more-or-less localized bubbles, not really so levered, and not nearly so interconnected with lots and lots and lots of other sick, unsustainable trends. In other words, there is no good way to escape this, although my advice is to get to a position where you have something to barter which s under your control and which has value in a primitive society.

 
“If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”

― Herbert Stein, What I Think: Essays on Economics, Politics, & Life


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