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Re: This Is BAD...

By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 01 Jan 23 5:09 PM | 48 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 38715 of 58641
(This msg. is a reply to 38569 by Decomposed)
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I had some good conversations overnight with my son and his friend, both of whom have math degrees. They poked a decent hole in my "ellipse" argument, namely that you can't eyeball a line of best fit on the national debt as I was a trying to do. Small differences can dramatically change the conclusions. As shown below, different ellipse arcs can be laid on the plot of the national debt (drawn in black) with significantly different dates of verticality. The green ellipse starts and ends at approximately the right points but doesn't go vertical until the year 2033. The yellow ellipse also starts and ends at approximately the right points, but goes vertical *TODAY*.

So I need to improve upon this approach. I wish I knew how. I need a mathematically produced "arc of best fit."





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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: This Is BAD...
By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE
Sun, 25 Dec 22 5:15 AM 		Msg. 38569 of 58641

fizzy:

Re: “Although the formula of a circle (x^2 + y^2 = r^2) is not a exponentially compounding function (f(x)=a^x) the curve fit is still disturbing.”Thank you for the reply.

It _should_ be disturbing. It should scare the hell out of anyone who understands it. It means that in 2 to 4 years, AT MOST, the dollar is going to get wiped out - losing, not some, but ALL of its purported value.

You're right that the curve shouldn't be circular. It should be an asymptotic curve... akin to the one displayed to the right. However, what I drew earlier isn't, as you suggested, from a circle. It's from an ellipsis. An oval. And the distinction between an asymptotic curve and the arc of an ellipsis can be almost impossible to see until it finally deviates when verticalness approaches.

The difference between elliptical and asymptotic curves can be significant. While I initially thought that an asymptotic curve made things even more bleak, it actually doesn't. It buys us additional time... but probably not very much. It's a distinction that won't be noticeable to the layman except at the extremes. Put another way, the fact that dollar debt is following an asymptotic curve and not an ellipse won't even matter until the end is nigh, when economic conditions are already very, very bad. See the image below of the same asymptotic curve, but turned and inverted with a full ellipse alongside. Notice that until the asymptotic line is nearly vertical, the elliptical arc is parallel to it.

For any who still don't understand, the original ellipse's arc shows the trajectory we are on and the proximity of dollar failure. It's showing not only that a tidal wave is coming to the bay where we live, but that it's already visible from the beach where we're standing. 2025 is just around the corner.

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