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Re: This Is BAD...

By: Zimbler0 in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Mon, 02 Jan 23 2:57 AM | 39 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 38730 of 58648
(This msg. is a reply to 38715 by Decomposed)
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Well, De,

In things like this I suspect one ought to be looking at the graphs, and trying to decide 'what makes the graph do the things that it is doing'?

Your graph shows the line going vertical for a short time in 2020 . . . Why? Closures and lockdowns due to the pandemic coupled with unfettered governmental 'spending' to try to mollify the situation.

What effect is that 'biden spending spree' in that omnibus 'bill' going to do to the graph?

Zim.




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Re: This Is BAD...
By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE
Sun, 01 Jan 23 5:09 PM 		Msg. 38715 of 58648

I had some good conversations overnight with my son and his friend, both of whom have math degrees. They poked a decent hole in my "ellipse" argument, namely that you can't eyeball a line of best fit on the national debt as I was a trying to do. Small differences can dramatically change the conclusions. As shown below, different ellipse arcs can be laid on the plot of the national debt (drawn in black) with significantly different dates of verticality. The green ellipse starts and ends at approximately the right points but doesn't go vertical until the year 2033. The yellow ellipse also starts and ends at approximately the right points, but goes vertical *TODAY*.

So I need to improve upon this approach. I wish I knew how. I need a mathematically produced "arc of best fit."

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