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Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!

By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Tue, 14 Mar 23 2:54 AM | 52 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 40967 of 58617
(This msg. is a reply to 40963 by Fiz)
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fizzy:

Re: “Although I know this is probably pushing your hypothetical curve fitting too far, when would your curve say we might go over 40 Trillion? Early 2024?”It *is* pushing it too far, considering that I'm literally using a ruler on my screen to place the tic marks for the years and I can see even now that they're a little off... perhaps 6 to 9 months off. But, since you asked and since I found it interesting, here's what I came up with. The vertical red line is when we'll hit $35 trillion - in the first half of 2023. The vertical green line is when we'll hit $40 trillion - in the first half of 2024. The vertical blue line is when we'll hit $45 trillion - toward the end of 2024. The vertical pink line, early 2025, is when the ellipse of government debt goes vertical.

I'm noticing something odd already. The chart, created in October 2022, showed the debt to be $31.1 trillion. Today, various sites are saying the debt is between $31.4 and $31.6 trillion. Now, how can that be? On December 15, 2022, Biden signed a $1.7 trillion spending bill into law. So, at the very least, we must currently be at $32.8 trillion. Someone explain the discrepancy to me please...

The updated chart is shown below.
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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!
By: Fiz in 6TH POPE
Tue, 14 Mar 23 12:37 AM 		Msg. 40963 of 58617

Although I know this is probably pushing your hypothetical curve fitting too far, when would your curve say we might go over 40 Trillion? Early 2024?

This year we were already likely to have a few bumps, due to politics and the debt ceiling, a banking crisis would seem almost certain to give us another eight trillion or more!


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