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Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!

By: Fiz in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 15 Mar 23 3:03 AM | 36 view(s)
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Msg. 41013 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 41011 by Zimbler0)

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"Yeah, my net worth is less but unless I sell there is a chance the share price might come back up."

Nothing wrong with THAT! Look, I got caught in a major regional real estate crash, right after I'd bought a 46 unit apartment building. Prices collapsed and I was majorly underwater before I knew it. To save money, and fend off a foreclosure, I didn't sell! I moved into the building and became the resident manager for almost ten years. Then I started another business because I had NO income after paying for necessary expenses I couldn't dodge. Eventually things recovered enough and I got out. It turned out to be a valuable experience, as the earlier crash, prepared. me to see the housing bubble of the 2000s and get out before 2008! I made a lot of money on that, as I exchanged into farmland, which had been depressed for 30 years ... and held on as it tripled!

So, my comments weren't telling you what to do! If it is a great company and the fundamental thesis is still valid, or you have a new thesis which seems valid, then hold on! My only advice? Don't DECEIVE YOURSELF by lying that you haven't lost money ... when you have lost money!

I think the way you want to look at this is: Is the stock a strong enough buy at the current price? Again, I admire your heavy preference for dividend paying stocks. The dividends blunt any share price decline and, given enough time, can even justify the original purchase vs. alternatives. What is the dividend yield at today's price? Le's say it is 7%. Then, using rule of 72 for a quick analysis, 72/7=10.3 years doubling time. So, you get all your money back after 10 years and still have the stock! Indeed, since you only lost around 10% of your purchase price in the stock decline, you are whole again after only a couple years, all things considered! I wish I could say that about some of my stonk "divestments"!! ;->


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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!
By: Zimbler0
in 6TH POPE
Wed, 15 Mar 23 2:13 AM
Msg. 41011 of 60008

Fiz > If I die in the back room, or kill my wife, but nobody reports my death or finds her body, neither of us is really dead, of course. And no felony has been committed.


Oh, the felony was committed all right. Jut nobody noticed it BUT - when they do 'you' can be charged.

In the case of my BKH. . . Yeah, my net worth is less but unless I sell there is a chance the share price might come back up.

In 2000 after the tech stock collapse several things I owned became worth less than I paid for them . . . but they came back a few years later. Same story in 2008.

BKH is a power company. Probably regulated - which means I got shares in a golden goose 'they' don't want going under because they want the lights to stay on. My dividends are good so I'm not going to sweat the 'unrealized loss' too much.

Zim.


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