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Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!

By: Zimbler0 in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Wed, 15 Mar 23 8:08 PM | 46 view(s)
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Msg. 41028 of 58598
(This msg. is a reply to 41013 by Fiz)

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Fiz > So, you get all your money back after 10 years and still have the stock! Indeed, since you only lost around 10% of your purchase price in the stock decline, you are whole again after only a couple years, all things considered! I wish I could say that about some of my stonk "divestments"!! ;->


BKH is about a 4% current dividend yield . . . Gonna take a long time at that rate to get my money back. . . but BKH also likes to increase the dividend - by not quite 6% a year.

McCormick likes to increase their dividend by about 9% a year. (McCormick current dividend yield is about 2% . . .) It is that tendency to increase the dividends I like to see.

Zim.




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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!
By: Fiz
in 6TH POPE
Wed, 15 Mar 23 3:03 AM
Msg. 41013 of 58598

"Yeah, my net worth is less but unless I sell there is a chance the share price might come back up."

Nothing wrong with THAT! Look, I got caught in a major regional real estate crash, right after I'd bought a 46 unit apartment building. Prices collapsed and I was majorly underwater before I knew it. To save money, and fend off a foreclosure, I didn't sell! I moved into the building and became the resident manager for almost ten years. Then I started another business because I had NO income after paying for necessary expenses I couldn't dodge. Eventually things recovered enough and I got out. It turned out to be a valuable experience, as the earlier crash, prepared. me to see the housing bubble of the 2000s and get out before 2008! I made a lot of money on that, as I exchanged into farmland, which had been depressed for 30 years ... and held on as it tripled!

So, my comments weren't telling you what to do! If it is a great company and the fundamental thesis is still valid, or you have a new thesis which seems valid, then hold on! My only advice? Don't DECEIVE YOURSELF by lying that you haven't lost money ... when you have lost money!

I think the way you want to look at this is: Is the stock a strong enough buy at the current price? Again, I admire your heavy preference for dividend paying stocks. The dividends blunt any share price decline and, given enough time, can even justify the original purchase vs. alternatives. What is the dividend yield at today's price? Le's say it is 7%. Then, using rule of 72 for a quick analysis, 72/7=10.3 years doubling time. So, you get all your money back after 10 years and still have the stock! Indeed, since you only lost around 10% of your purchase price in the stock decline, you are whole again after only a couple years, all things considered! I wish I could say that about some of my stonk "divestments"!! ;->


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