This is part3. Other parts link at the bottom.
http://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/serbia-orders-troops-border-high-state-alert-over-kosovo-clashes
Excerpt:
Pozsar's Trades: How to Weather the Storm
Authored by Goldfix Part 4 of 4. Links to previous parts at bottom.
The best transition from part 3 on QE/YCC to this final actionable post is a comment by ZH from a "Checkmate-Like Situation...",
Picking up on what Bridgewater's Bob Prince said in October, when he warned that “the amount of government debt that will need to be absorbed by the private sector in [2023] is larger than at any time outside of world wars”, and..... that "with US/Japan/EU/UK governments all set to issue $6 trillion in bonds in 2023", the Fed will either step in and resume monetizing this debt, keeping yields manageable, or it won't suggesting that QE will have to come back, Pozsar says "he can't disagree..."
That is precisely what the YCC/QE mentioned in part 3 will be used for. Here is where Pozsar posits how one can position themselves for that eventuality. Zoltan puts the truly fresh material near the end, like a dessert for those of us who have the appetite to finish the 4000 word meal placed before them.
This time, he lays out at the highest level his suggestions investors start to focus upon for the next ten years to optimize their portfolios. This is the part no doubt, CS clients will be calling their advisors on. Here it is in English:
Translated from Zoltanese
Right now: sell some bonds, buy some commodities with half of those bond sales, and hold the other half in cash (ratios below)
Redeploy cash as the curve un-inverts (re-steepens).. This is the tactical part. (commod/stock/bond mix)
Commodities should include the three Golds: Black (oil), White (lithium), and Yellow. Categorized and augmented:
Oil-- we add copper, Gasoline for Traditional Industrials
Lithium- we add cobalt, uranium for Renewable Metals
Gold- we add Silver for Monetary Metals
Dollar buying power will weaken as consequence of de-globalization, but remain the strongest among Western countries.
If the dollar remains strong vs the G7 but weakens versus the BRICS, then by proxy, the price of raw materials9 will go up in dollar terms (Zoltan’s Crisis of commodity collateral concepts
While this all makes sense, we're not saying to do this. We're just trying to make his ideas a little more accessible.
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