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Re: Debt Ellipse

By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Sun, 15 Oct 23 9:57 AM | 57 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 46721 of 58622
(This msg. is a reply to 40967 by Decomposed)
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It's been about six months since I posted the chart below. I figure we should look at it every so often - if only to keep it fresh in our minds and see how it's holding up.

Per USDebtClock.org, the debt is now $33.5 trillion. The ellipse says we should be over $35 trillion. What? As quickly as that, the debt isn't following the curve? Naw,
it's more complicated than that.

I learned after creating the ellipse and bringing it to this board's attention that Statista's and USDebtClock's numbers are off from one another by about $2 trillion. I don't
know the reason - it could be as simple as Statista's numbers being END OF YEAR figures while I thought they were START OF YEAR numbers.

I'm not making light of the discrepancy and will definitely have to keep an eye on it. Presently, it means that Statista's dates and, therefore, my ellipse are several months ahead. It
buys the nation a little more time. It DOESN'T, however, mean that the debt curve has departed from the ellipse. We're still on the ellipse. The discrepancy suggests that
$40 trillion will be around January 2025... and the feared precipice is six months further down the road.

If six months from now the number of dollars by which Statista and USDebtClock disagree is significantly more than $2 trillion then my explanation will seemingly be
invalidated and I'll reevaluate or reject the "ellipse" concept.





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Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months

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The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: If SVB is insolvent, so is everyone else - US Treasuries, far from being safe, are the NEW Toxic Security!
By: Decomposed in 6TH POPE
Tue, 14 Mar 23 2:54 AM 		Msg. 40967 of 58622

fizzy:

Re: “Although I know this is probably pushing your hypothetical curve fitting too far, when would your curve say we might go over 40 Trillion? Early 2024?”It *is* pushing it too far, considering that I'm literally using a ruler on my screen to place the tic marks for the years and I can see even now that they're a little off... perhaps 6 to 9 months off. But, since you asked and since I found it interesting, here's what I came up with. The vertical red line is when we'll hit $35 trillion - in the first half of 2023. The vertical green line is when we'll hit $40 trillion - in the first half of 2024. The vertical blue line is when we'll hit $45 trillion - toward the end of 2024. The vertical pink line, early 2025, is when the ellipse of government debt goes vertical.

I'm noticing something odd already. The chart, created in October 2022, showed the debt to be $31.1 trillion. Today, various sites are saying the debt is between $31.4 and $31.6 trillion. Now, how can that be? On December 15, 2022, Biden signed a $1.7 trillion spending bill into law. So, at the very least, we must currently be at $32.8 trillion. Someone explain the discrepancy to me please...

The updated chart is shown below.
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