Re: “As signs point to the 2024 presidential election being a repeat of the 2020 race between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, Biden holds a lead over Trump 50 - 44 percent among registered voters in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a Quinnipiac” - clo2 http://www.atomicbobs.com/index.php?mode=read&id=1237100 ;
A new poll from Quinnipiac showing President Joe Biden leading former President Donald Trump by six points may not be as significant as some claim. While it remains to be seen how Quinnipiac’s accuracy will hold up for the 2024 election, the polling firm missed the mark over the past several election cycles.
Polling aggregator FiveThirtyEight provides several valuable measures for understanding how accurate a pollster has been in the past. According to their data, Quinnipiac ranks 15th overall by their custom rankings, which weight accuracy, number of polls conducted, and data transparency. When isolated for just accuracy, Quinnipiac ranks 36th overall. By comparison, according to FiveThirtyEight’s data, the New York Times/Siena poll is number one in both their custom rankings and by accuracy alone.
The Quinnipiac poll gives the Democrats a weighted three-point edge in the 2024 election, with the survey comprised of 32 percent registered Democrat voters, 29 percent Republican, 29 percent independent, and 10 percent who said other or do not know their affiliation. The last New York Times/Siena poll conducted in November showed Trump leading in five of the six key battleground states — indicating the former Republican President likely has a slight edge over the Democrat incumbent.
A bevy of pollsfielded just after Quinnipiac’s show Trump and Biden in a statistical tie or Trump with an edge over Biden. Only one poll from YouGov for The Economist shows Biden with a lead (1 point). The RealClearPolitics polling average still has Trump with a 1.7 percent edge over Biden — even with their aggregate incorporating the Quinnipiac poll.
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