Msg. 50591 of 60008 (This msg. is a reply to
50586 by
De_Composed)
Jump:
>>>
“Especially after you’ve [Ukraine] lost at least a half a million killed and wounded over the course of the war.
>>>
I don't believe Ukraine's casualties are anywhere near that figure.
>>>
Ukraine War Casualties Near Half a Million, U.S. Officials Say - The ...
Aug 18, 2023U.S. officials said Ukraine had suffered close to 70,000 killed and 100,000 to 120,000
>>>
Adding up 70,000 plus 120,000 comes up a LOT short of a 'half a million'. 'Somebody' LIED.
On the other hand, Russia's casualties are estimated to be 400,000. From early in the war Ukraine was blowing apart Russian tanks, Russian fuel trucks, Russian troop transports. HIMARS missile systems were used to very good effect to kill Russian troop concentrations and supply depots.
Between 2014 and 2022 NATO spent quite a bit of time training the Ukrainian Army. Trump sent Ukraine Javelin anti-tank missiles. Ukraine is also said to have excellent battlefield medical care, Russia - not so much.
Russia is sending poorly trained troops into Ukraine to get slaughtered. Ukraine has a LOT of combat veterans now - both well trained before the war and now well trained and experienced.
Russia is also said to be not meeting their recruiting goals.
There is “no path to a military victory for Ukraine,” and further aid packages will have virtually no effect on the conflict’s outcome, according to retired Army Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis, who warned that American influence is waning as the Russia-Ukraine war enters its third year.
In an exclusive interview with Breitbart News, Davis, a Defense Priorities senior fellow and military expert who retired from the U.S. Army as a Lt. Col. following his 21 years of active service, addressed Russia’s war in Ukraine, claiming that the two-year mark of the conflict “actually represents a full decade of diplomatic failure.”
“There is no path to a military victory for Ukraine, and that has just been solidified more so today than at any point,” he stated. “It is incredibly clear that there is no possibility for Ukraine to ever win the war as defined by pushing Russia back to the 1991 border. It’s never gonna happen.”
“I don’t care how many years they fight, ow many millions of artillery shells the West provides for them — that’s never gonna make the difference,” he added. “You can’t undo the damage that’s already happened in the last two years.”
Calling it “insane to continue trying to achieve the unachievable,” he insisted that that is exactly “what we’re doing right now, both in the West and Ukrainian President Volodymyr] Zelensky.”
According to Davis — who spent more than two decades in active service including combat deployments in Iraq and Afghanistan and was awarded two Bronze Star medals — Zelensky is unwilling to make any kind of negotiated settlement with the current line of contact, preferring to gain everything back “even if it takes years.”
“But his country doesn’t have the capacity to go more years; he doesn’t have the troops to go more years,” he explained. “They’re already scraping the bottom of the barrel now; they can’t replace [soldier] losses, and they suffer more losses per month than their ability to forcibly mobilize new replacements.”
In addition, he noted, “when you forcibly mobilize people to the level that they are right now, those are not going to be good soldiers.”
“Especially after you’ve [Ukraine] lost at least a half a million killed and wounded over the course of the war. Almost all of those who were in uniform at the start of the war have either been killed or wounded or removed from the battlefield in one way or another,” he said.
“So you’re basically trying to create a new army from scratch, which means nobody has experience at the key levels,” he added. “You can’t build an army like that. You just can’t get past that.”
Davis rejected White House national security spokesman John Kirby’s “nonsense” assessment two days prior to the fall of the eastern Ukrainian city of Avdiivka, that it would soon fall because Congress “hasn’t cut loose” the $60 billion aid package, and there is a shortage of artillery shells.
“That’s nonsense [because] that money would have had absolutely zero impact on that battle,” he stated. “It’s not as though there’s a bunch of pallets of 155mm shells sitting in Costco somewhere, and if you just had the money, you could just go buy them. That’s not the case.”
“We’re already doing everything we can in both the United States and the Western Europe to create as many artillery shells as we can but there’s problems with production, he explained.
Citing a recent Defense One piece confirming that the U.S. Army is constructing three Texas-based 155mm artillery ammo production lines, each projected to produce 30,000 shells monthly by end-2025, Davis, a former tank commander, noted that such a move “means it will be 2026 before any of those shells in any numbers are coming off the role.”
“What good is that gonna do?” he asked. “That’s not anything that’s going to help.”
During a Joint Press Availability at the State Department with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg last month, Secretary of State Antony Blinken called for Congressional support for Ukraine, while noting NATO’s signing of a $1.2 billion contract to produce 220,000 artillery shells — which Davis described as “enough for about two to three weeks of normal use.”
“And that won’t even be produced for two years,” he said, noting that Blinken had not mentioned that fact.
“So you see that was something that was done a month ago, and so you cut loose to $60 billion now, it’s not going to have any impact on the frontline for the foreseeable future, regardless of whether it gets released or not,” he added.
According to Davis, the status of the war “is being decided by the actions at the front line,” particularly the increasing Russian capacity and supply of ammunition.
“The decreasing supply on the Ukrainian side, which I have been addressing since the late spring of last year, that there is a math problem — that there’s not enough shells being produced in the amount that they ere using in that offensive [which] creates a mismatch, that at some point [it will] start running out,” he said.
“And that’s precisely what happened because it’s just predictable, as Monday follows Sunday,” he added. “It’s just a math issue; a physical issue — there’s so many of those things at play.”
Despite those “legitimately [pointing to] the Ukraine side,” noting that even without a Navy it has managed to “knock out around a third of the [Russian] Black Sea fleet,” Davis admitted it was “an amazing accomplishment” but “probably speaks more to the fact that the days of the surface fleet are over worldwide, not just the Russian naval fleet.”
“Our fleet is probably a lot more volatile than we think it is. That’s probably the bigger lesson there,” he added, noting that the fact “has almost nothing to do with the frontline.”
According to Davis, everything that goes into building national military power is in Russia’s favor.
“Their industrial capacity, their manpower pool, their political will in the country, that they’re still willing to go on, that they’re recruiting tens of thousands of people per month, that they still don’t have to force mobilize, and that they’re volunteering to show up,” he said.
“The Ukrainian side doesn’t have that,” he added, highlighting how the average enlisted Ukrainian soldier is 43-years-old. “Ukraine is losing more men per month than they’re bringing in. So you see the numbers just don’t work in any category you want to look at. The war is over and it’s not going to be won by Ukraine.”
On geopolitical arguments that favoring such an unwinnable war presents a prime opportunity for the U.S. to weaken Russia’s military strength regardless of a Ukraine victory, Davis described them as both “immoral” and “disgusting,” asserting that it “basically ignores the cost to the Ukrainians in blood, and all the men that have been lost there.”
“Somehow that’s cool for us, because it ends up harming our geopolitical enemy opposition,” he said. “We’re not at war with Russia, so you can’t say ‘our enemy’ because we’re not fighting, though they are.”
“But the people are applauding because it hurts Russia,” he added. “That’s not right.”
He also criticized claims that the conflict is “great for business.”
“You’ve had all kinds of leaders, and Blinken, saying that most of this money is going to America, so it’s a win-win,” he said. “But just to say that we’re benefiting financially from the deaths of thousands and thousands of people in a war that has nothing to do with our national security is disgusting to me.”
“It just turns my stomach that people brag about that openly,” he added. “And I guess at least they’re doing it openly and being honest in that regard, but the whole thing is just nonsense.”
Davis took issue with those “screaming to get that [aid] package released,” because they are “implying that that’s going to be the thing that’ll change the dynamics in the field.”
“If Zelensky’s right, this is a multi-year deal that is going to have to go [on]. So we gave, along with Western Europe, around $200 billion, maybe a little bit more than that, in the first 18 months of the war, along with thousands of pieces of equipment,” he said. “Obviously that did nothing during the offensive. It didn’t dent the line.”
“What little dents that they made have been lost because Russia is now on the move offensively,” he added.
He then questioned who exactly was “signing up in the West to say this $60 billion will only be the last installment?”
“It is going to be another $50 billion come later in the year, and then every year for the foreseeable future we’re going to have more tranches of $50 billion. Have you heard anybody saying that? Is anyone talking about that out loud? Nobody,” he said.
“Europe passed a $50 billion bill for four years [and] there’s no evidence they’re going to do anything more and that money is basically going for administrative operations within the country itself — that’s the majority of that, not even for the war per say, even though they’re trying to do some of the stuff,” he added. “Well, you can’t keep going with that when Russia has no constraints. They’re continuing to increase in every capacity.”
Davis asserted that if one chooses to be “logical, rational and willing to look at things as they are on the ground,” then no one will “conclude that this war can be won by Ukraine.”
“It can’t even be a stalemate by Ukraine unless a miracle happens and the Russian army just disintegrates for no reason,” he said. “But that’s a terrible bet to make, it’s more of a gamble that is far more likely to lose than win.”
Turning to the strategic alignment among Russia, China, and Iran, characterized by their collaborative efforts in geopolitical, economic, and military domains, Davis explained how the current partnership between those states was emboldened by the current conflict.
“Before this war started, the four big boogeymen we always wanted to talk about: Russia and China, North Korea and Iran — none of them were working together,” he said. “They were all separate because they had many economic and geopolitical reasons not to work together because that would raise alarm bells [and] create sanctions or other negative actions that we might take.”
While it “wasn’t in their interest to do so” in the past, Davis noted, our active engagement in the current war between Russia and Ukraine has “eliminated a lot of the reasons why they would have removed themselves from doing that,” leading to “much stronger ties” between Russia and China than before.
“Now you have direct military ties between Russia and North Korea, and Russia and Iran, to the point of literally providing weapons and ammunition on the battlefield,” he added, “just like we’re doing for Ukraine, they’re now doing for Russia. That would have never happened before.”
Pointing to a joint naval exercise between Russia, Iran, and China announced this month, Davis asserted that that alliance is not going to “magically stop” if this war ends tomorrow and is actually “improving.”
“So everywhere you want to look, our influence is waning,” he added.
As a result, Davis advocates for an immediate end to the war.
“Let’s get a ceasefire right away and then let’s get a negotiated settlement, even if it takes another year to do,” he said. “But let’s stop this because we need to stop the bleeding — both of the Ukrainian people, first and foremost, and then, secondly, our influence around the world needs to stop bleeding because that’s exactly what it’s doing.”
“Right now, those are the things that exist at the moment, and most of those are financial or economic, geopolitical or are just mental, and just how people feel and sense,” he added.
He then warned that if the current conflict continues, it can turn into a “physical military defeat” for our side:
Regarding how he envisioned the war a year from now, Davis stated that the determining factor is “art more than it is science.”
“Ukraine is going to have a hard time not breaking their army somewhere along the line of contact before the summer is over,” he said. “Maybe they can hang on. They certainly surprised me in their resilience before but now that you’re talking two years in and all the evidence continues to go against the Ukraine side, they see it, they see the political dysfunction.”
Though “nobody ever wants to talk about it in the West” Davis explained that “even if we give this money, even if they get a bunch more tanks and everything else, the tactical performance of the senior Ukrainian leaders has been terrible at the operational level” in his view.
He also noted that the summer offensive and the tactics used were “predictably” doomed to fail.
“Everybody knew where they were going. They telegraphed it. The New York Times published articles about what was going to happen. The Ukrainian people themselves told about what they were going to do and where they were going to try to go, and Russia was ready for it,” he said.
In addition, he stated, the “way that they fought, that I wrote months prior to the offensive’s start, would end in disaster for predictable reasons, was a failure.”
“Their leaders didn’t know it was going to be a bad idea; they thought that it would work and they went down,” he said. “But their performance at the operational level has been abysmal.”
“While it is still technically possible for the Ukraine side to turn it around, I don’t see any evidence that they’re going to,” he added.
Earlier this week, Davis discussed a new offensive from Ukraine on his Deep Dive show.
In October, Davis insisted that current clashes in the Middle East are part of a larger picture of volatility in a wide range of countries amid the global loss of American prestige and influence.
Previously, he warned that the United States has “no plan” or strategy in Ukraine and that invoking NATO’s “mutual defense” clause could trigger a nuclear war.
DON'T BELIEVE A DAMN WORD YOU READ ON THIS WEBSITE!
The reader is responsible for discerning the validity, factuality or implications of information posted here, be it fictional or based on real events. Moderators on this forum make every effort to review the material posted on this site however, it is not realistically possible for a one man team to manually review each and every one of the posts atomicbobs.com gets on a daily basis.
The content of posts on this site, including but not limited to links to other web sites, are the expressed opinion of the original poster and are in no way representative of or endorsed by the owners or administration of this website. The posts on this website are the opinion of the specific author and are not statements of advice, opinion, or factual information on behalf of the owner or administration of Atomicbobs. This site may contain adult language, if you feel you might be offended by such content, you should log off immediately.
Not all posts on this website are intended as truthful or factual assertion by their authors. Some users of this website are participating in internet role playing, with or without the use of an avatar. NO post on this website should be considered factual information on face value alone. Users are encouraged to
USE DISCERNMENT
and do their own follow up research while reading and posting on this website. Atomicbobs.com reserves the right to make changes to, corrections and/or remove entirely at any time posts made on this website without notice. In addition, Atomicbobs.com disclaims any and all liability for damages incurred directly or indirectly as a result of a post on this website.
This website implements certain security features in order to prevent spam and posting abuse. By making a post on this website you consent to any automated security checks required by our system to authenticate your IP address as belonging to an actual human. It is forbidden to make posts on this website from open proxy servers. By making a post on this website you consent to an automated one time limited port scan of your IP address which is required by our security system to validate the authenticity of your internet connection.
This site is provided "as is" without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. You should not assume that this site is error-free or that it will be suitable for the particular purpose which you have in mind when using it. In no event shall Atomicbobs.com be liable for any special, incidental, indirect or consequential damages of any kind, or any damages whatsoever, including, without limitation, those resulting from loss of use, data or profits, whether or not advised of the possibility of damage, and on any theory of liability, arising out of or in connection with the use or performance of this site or other documents which are referenced by or linked to this site.
Some events depicted in certain posting and threads on this website may be fictitious and any similarity to any person living or dead is merely coincidental. Some other articles may be based on actual events but which in certain cases incidents, characters and timelines have been changed for dramatic purposes. Certain characters may be composites, or entirely fictitious.
We do not discriminate against the mentally ill!
Fair Use Notice:
This site may contain copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically authorized by the copyright owner. Users may make such material available in an effort to advance awareness and understanding of issues relating to civil rights, economics, individual rights, international affairs, liberty, science & technology, etc. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such copyrighted material as provided for in section 107 of the US Copyright Law.
At some point freedom of speech and copyright law merge. The following interpretation of "Fair Use" and subsequent posting policy were developed with the assistance of qualified legal council however, we are not lawyers and cannot offer you legal advise as to the limits of "Fair Use"
In accordance with industry accepted best practices we ask that users limit their copy / paste of copyrighted material to the relevant portions of the article you wish to discuss and no more than 50% of the source material, provide a link back to the original article and provide your original comments / criticism in your post with the article.
Though legally each situation is evaluated independently according to guidelines that were intentionally left open to interpretation, we believe generally this policy represents "Fair Use" of any such copyrighted material for the purposes of education and discussion.
You are responsible for what you "publish" on the internet. You must be sure any copyrighted material you choose to post for discussion on this forum falls within the limits of "Fair Use" as defined by the law.
If you are a legal copyright holder or a designated agent for such and you believe a post on this website falls outside the boundaries of "Fair Use" and legitimately infringes on yours or your clients copyright
we may be contacted concerning copyright matters at:
If you require a courier address please send a fax or email and we will provide you with the required information.
For expedited human review & removal of potential copyright violations we encourage users & copyright holders to utilize the "Report Copyright Violation" button that accompanies each post published on this website.
In accordance with section 512 of the U.S. Copyright Act our contact information has been registered with the United States Copyright Office. "Safe Harbor" noticing procedures as outlined in the DMCA apply to this website concerning all 3rd party posts published herein.
If notice is given of an alleged copyright violation we will act expeditiously to remove or disable access to the material(s) in question. It is our strict policy to disable access to accounts of repeat copyright violators. We will also ban the IP address of repeat offenders from future posting on this website with or without a registered account.
All 3rd party material posted on this website is copyright the respective owners / authors. Atomicbobs.com makes no claim of copyright on such material.
Please be aware any communications sent complaining about a post on this website may be posted publicly at the discretion of the administration.
---
DON'T BREAK THE LAW!
---
Other than that you can do / say whatever you want on this forum.
We reserve the right to block access to this website by any individual or organization at any time for any reason whatsoever or no reason at all.
| 
