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Msg. 51041 of 60008 |
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Last week I gave a talk at the American Moment conference in D.C. in which I compared Biden’s claims at the beginning of the Ukraine War to how it has actually turned out. I explained how Biden’s policy has backfired in 4 key areas: 1) ECONOMIC At the beginning of the war, Biden claimed that sanctions would “crush” the Russian economy, forcing Russia out of the war and perhaps even precipitating regime change. In fact, the dislocation to Russia’s economy was short-lived. By 2023, the Russian economy was outperforming the G7. Meanwhile, the real victim of sanctions was Europe, especially the German economy, which relied on cheap Russian gas to power its exports. As a result, the war is destabilizing governments throughout Europe — just not Putin’s. Instead of hurting the Russian economy, Biden’s economic war has hurt our European allies. This is the first big backfire. 2) MILITARY At the outset of the war, the Biden administration declared that its objective was to “weaken” Russia militarily so it couldn’t wage regional war again. The media breathlessly amplified claims of Russian weakness and impending collapse, only to discover the reality of massive Russian industrial war production. Russian factories and forges are now ramped up and producing more artillery shells, drones, tanks, and other weapons of war. In fact, it’s the West that can’t keep up, with its atrophied defense industrial base. America’s own stockpiles, most notably of artillery shells and air defense, have been depleted much faster than war planners anticipated. The size of the Russian military has grown too, thanks to large numbers of enlistments and a casualty rate that’s decreasing over time. The Russian army has become more battle-tested and battle-hardened, learning how to defeat western weapons. Biden’s proxy war was supposed to weaken Russia’s military but instead has made it stronger and more formidable, while depleting America’s own stockpiles. This is the second big backfire. 3) DIPLOMATIC / GEOPOLITICAL At the outset, Biden claimed that the war would show Western unity, resolve and leadership while isolating Putin. In fact, the rest of the world has not come along for the ride. The BRICS countries and much of the Global South reject the U.S. view of the war and refuse to sanction or condemn Russia. On a recent visit to the Middle East, Putin was greeted like a conquering hero in UAE and Saudi Arabia. Sanctions have only made BRICS more popular; it has added 5 new members, with a long wait list of countries seeking to join. These countries see BRICS as a defender of their economic sovereignty and a potential shield against a trigger-happy U.S. sanctions regime. Even liberal interventionists are now starting to notice. Fiona Hill declared that Pax Americana is over. And EU foreign minister Josep Borrell declared that the era of Western dominance has definitively ended. Rather than strengthening U.S. global leadership, the war has catalyzed resistance to it. This is Biden’s third big backfire. 4) HUMANITARIAN At the outset of the war, Biden claimed that his policy would “aid the Ukrainian people” and “help ease their suffering.” But Ukraine has suffered a vast number of casualties, and its population has further declined greatly as a result of refugees (mainly women and children) fleeing the country. According to UN/World Bank, the population of Ukraine-controlled territory has decreased from 44 million to 28 million. Over 10 million of the remainder are reported to be pensioners. This is a recipe for demographic collapse. So instead of helping Ukraine, Biden’s proxy war policy has likely doomed it. This is backfire number four. For more detail and all the receipts on Biden’s Big Backfire, check out the full speech from American Moment below. |
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