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Re: DE ... Re: MTG Files Motion to Strip Gavel from Mike Johnson 

By: De_Composed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (1)
Mon, 25 Mar 24 1:59 AM | 34 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 51482 of 58578
(This msg. is a reply to 51455 by monkeytrots)
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Re: “DE - Good fit. How about trying a logarithmic curve based on the 'compound interest' equation with a rate of 9%. Should also yield aprox the same shape and fit, with a 'real world' feel for the curve.”I don't understand what would be gained by comparing a logarithmic curve to a non-logarithmic debt graph.

My graph started in 1965 when the debt was $317 billion. To get it to $34.5 trillion today, you'd use 8.3% annual compounding. But although it eventually catches up to the $34.5 trillion, such a graph doesn't produce as good of a fit for most of the 59 years as what I already posted, usually hanging well below the actual debt.

But that's nitpicking. EITHER approach will yield the same conclusion: That the country's production-growth is severely lagging its debt-growth, to the extent that it will survive only a short while more. If you want to estimate how long that while is, an ellipse remains the best approach I've seen, with the added benefit that those of us with Windows have a tool (MSPAINT) right on our computer that can display the debt and model various ellipses upon it.

I don't have a professional modeling tool. There is, no doubt, a true curve-of-best fit that would precisely pin-down what our average debt growth looks like and how many months we have left before it approaches the vertical.





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The above is a reply to the following message:
DE ... Re: MTG Files Motion to Strip Gavel from Mike Johnson
By: monkeytrots in 6TH POPE
Sun, 24 Mar 24 2:16 AM 		Msg. 51455 of 58578

DE - Good fit. How about trying a logarithmic curve based on the 'compound interest' equation with a rate of 9%. Should also yield aprox the same shape and fit, with a 'real world' feel for the curve.

(Based on my observed 8 year doubling period, and the rule of 72.)

Just if'n youse in the mood to play with numbers a bit, and feel the urge. *s*

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