http://twitchy.com/samj/2024/04/07/thread-takes-jobs-report-apart-n2394841
As Biden continues to pat himself on the BAZILLION JOBS he's supposedly created, the truth behind the latest jobs report is out and as you all likely already knew, it's not good. Forget that if Biden has created any jobs, it's maybe 5 million, and most of them are part-time or ... wait for it ... government.
Oh, and those jobs are also going to illegals, just so you guys know the real story here. Americans are being left behind.
Take a look:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ For convenience, here's all the info on the Mar jobs report in a single thread - sorry to be the bearer of bad news, especially regarding American citizens losing so much ground in this economy ...
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ The headline numbers once again look good w/ over 300k payrolls added and the employment number from the household survey rising even faster, but what kinds of jobs are being created? Turns out they're all part-time:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ And this isn't new - it's a continuation of a long trend: full-time employment is lower today than Feb '23 w/ all of the net job creation since then being part-time work:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ Why the surge in part-time employment? Many Americans have been laid off and replaced 1 full-time job w/ 2 or 3 part-time ones; people are also picking up additional jobs to make ends meet in a cost-of-living crisis; this has caused an unprecedented divergence between the household and establishment surveys, since the latter double counts individuals w/ multiple jobs while the former survey shows a net loss of jobs since Aug '23:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ Number of people w/ multiple jobs jumped again in Mar but remember that this figure only increases when someone gets a 2nd job; if you're already working 2 gigs and pick up a 3rd, you're not counted again - at least not here; but you ARE counted again in the nonfarm payrolls ...
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ W/ the shift to so much part-time work, average hours worked per week has trended down for over almost 3 years and is below the pre-pandemic average; your hourly wage raise doesn't do much good when it's combined w/ a cut in your hours:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ Another disturbing datum point: too many jobs are in gov't; the economy isn't adding enough private-sector jobs to support number of workers gov't is hiring; Mar's ratio was about 3:1, nowhere near sustainable, especially since those private-sector jobs were all part-time, generating less tax revenue than average full-time job:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ Let's break down the annual change in private sector for a closer look: we find the fastest growing sector was health care, which is dominated by gov't; most of the hiring over the last year came directly or indirectly from gov't - even the construction jobs were mostly financed w/ gov't guaranteed loans on projects that aren't profitable (which is why the private sector wasn't undertaking those projects) ...
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ We'd rather see good-paying blue-collar manufacturing jobs taking the lead, but that sector has been anemic; employment is up a mere 0.1% since Jan '23, having added zero jobs in Mar '24:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ And while it's good to see the labor force participation rate climb, we're still way below the pre-pandemic rate, and that's hiding the true level of unemployment by excluding millions of workers from the calculation:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ You can see that the labor force is clearly below its pre-pandemic trend:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ And we see the same thing w/ the employment-to-population ratio:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ As well as the number of nonfarm payrolls from the establishment survey:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ And yet again in the employment level from the household survey, millions below the trend:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ The Bureau of Labor Statistics even has a category of people called "not in labor force" and it's about 5 million above the pre-pandemic level, and waaay above the pre-pandemic trend which had begun trending down in about Set '18:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ So, if you account for the millions of people who are clearly missing from the labor market today (and therefore are not employed), you can calculate that the unemployment rate isn't 3.8% but btwn 6.5% and 7.7% depending on which dataset and methodology you prefer to use:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ But who is getting these jobs? It's not native-born Americans, but foreigner workers - the former lost 651k jobs over the last 12 months, while employment of foreigners rose by 1.3 million:
E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) ~ And again, this is the continuation of a trend where Americans have been completely left behind in this economy; foreign-born employment is not only several million above its pre-pandemic level but is even above its pre-pandemic trend, while native-born Americans have made no progress in 4 years - in fact, they've gone backwards; a quick note on the different axes here: this chart was constructed so that the different values on the left and right axes are proportional; that means if both groups had the same rate of increase, the lines would have the same slope; also important is that these are not seasonally adjusted datasets so month-over-month changes are as apples-to-oranges comparison in most cases, while year-over-year changes do not have that issue; you can still create a seasonal adjustment yourself, it's just not provided by BLS; lastly, some have tried to blame the decline of native-born employment on Americans retiring, but that would only be enough of a change to slow the rate of growth, not turn it into decline:
Americans are being left behind in Biden's America.
Truth hurts.
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The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted. ~ D.H. Lawrence
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