Russian forces are poised to capture Kharkov, the second-largest city in Ukraine. Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskysaid his government was “doing everything we can” to prevent the Russians from capturing the city. “Kharkiv [sic] is one of the capitals of Ukraine, so it has great symbolic meaning.” Without further Western interference in the war, however, it is unlikely that Ukraine will be able to stop Russian forces should they make a push for the city.
A “successful assault on Kharkiv [sic] would be a major undertaking for Russia, but not completely out of the question,” noted Jacob Parakilas, research leader for Defense Strategy, Policy and Capabilities at RAND Europe. Kharkov sits fewer than 20 miles from the Russian border, and a “slow, grinding attack” could see Russian forces take control of the city within “months,” Parakilas said.
In the event of an offensive, will the Ukrainiandefense forces be able to defend Kharkiv [sic] without U.S. military assistance? We can!” claimed Colonel Andriy Zadubinnyi, a press officer with the Ukrainian military. “But it will be at the cost of tens of thousands of lives of Ukrainian soldiers,” he added.
The reality is that Ukraine would likely be unable to successfully defend Kharkov from a Russian offensive. “The Russian military can afford to take more losses for longer than the Ukrainians can,” Parakilas said.
Despite its continued pleas, it is unlikely Ukraine can defeat Russia even with an injection of billions of U.S. dollars into its coffers. U.S. Senator J.D. Vance noted recently that the “math” on Ukraine “doesn’t add up,” with the country needing more U.S. equipment than the U.S. can produce and more soldiers than it can possibly field. Former Navy Secretary Kenneth Braithwaite predicted last week that Ukraine could be “quickly overwhelmed” by Russia “within weeks.”
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