Forum Home | Log in | Signup | My Page | Rules | FAQ | Boards | Members | Search
« 6TH POPE Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next

Re: Debt - Playing with the Curve(s) of Best Fit again...

By: De_Composed in 6TH POPE | Recommend this post (0)
Sat, 27 Apr 24 3:14 PM | 36 view(s)
Boardmark this board | 6th Edition Pope Board 		Msg. 52730 of 60008
(This msg. is a reply to 52641 by De_Composed)
Jump:
Jump to board:
Jump to msg. #

I've updated my curve again, and it says we have until 2026... maybe 2027. A key change with this curve is that I start in 1972. There's a noticeable change in the slope of the debt at that time, and it is also the year the United States formally abandoned the gold standard for fiat. (Okay, my Amazon Echo says it happened in 1971.) I think that's a fitting time to start.

My prior curves of best fit started in 1965 simply because that's when the debt graph I'd found began. But it doesn't matter if the start is 1965 or 1972. The conclusion only shifts by a few months.

So, sometime in 2027 folks. 1½ to 3 years. You won't have to wait long before you can laugh at me and my crackpot prediction.

I've intentionally drawn this thing BIG so you can see it. You'll have scroll down to get to the important part.

The years written at the bottom are pretty arbitrary. I picked places where the debt seemed to change for the worse, then drew a vertical line to the bottom to see when it was.





» You can also:
- - - - -
The above is a reply to the following message:
Re: Debt - Playing with the Curve(s) of Best Fit again...
By: De_Composed in 6TH POPE
Tue, 23 Apr 24 9:13 AM 		Msg. 52641 of 60008

One more point. If I went all the way back to the start of my data, 1929, and drew a curve of best fit, it buys some additional time. However, you can see in the chart below how poor the "fit" is (the black line.) I could have futzed around with ellipses all day and I never would have found a good fit. I interpret this to mean that the national debt back then didn't grow on the same curve that it's on today. There is no 1929 curve of best fit that does a good job of simulating the next 95 years. And that makes sense: Something extreme happened between 1965 and 1975 that should have shifted the curve - the U.S. completely abandoned the gold standard. That freed the country to grow its debt as quickly as it wished. Harnesses removed, it went nuts.

« 6TH POPE Home | Email msg. | Reply to msg. | Post new | Board info. Previous | Home | Next