Msg. 55921 of 58510 (This msg. is a reply to
55918 by
De_Composed)
Jump:
Just came back from a restaurant where they had one of their TVs on CNN.
Why? WHY? I don't know. Why the hell should I know why?!
Anyway ... CNN was pushing this latest poll ... a national poll ... of registered voters. And, guess what? Trump was ahead of Cackles by 1% - 48 to 47.
BWHA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!! It's registered voters, which is FAR less reliable than likely voters. It oversamples Democrats. And, a national poll doesn't mean squat ... the ONLY meaningful ones are the individual state polls that provide a pathway to 270 or more votes in the Electoral College. Overweighting excess Democrat votes from Democrat sh!tholes like California and New York doesn't mean diddly. In fact, the analysts from CNN have already stated that the Democrat usually needs to be 4 to 6% up on the Republican in the national poll to typically have a chance in the Electoral College.
The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted. ~ D.H. Lawrence
Democrats pulled a switcheroo with Joe Biden, knowing they were going to go down to defeat with him, after his disastrous debate made it impossible to hide his cognitive decline anymore.
Democrats are trying to whip up excitement over Kamala Harris. But are they going to be in any better position with Harris?
People were pointing to a Reuters poll that had Harris up by two percentage points. But that also had Democrats oversampled:
As CNN's data analyst Harry Enten explained, this is a big difference from 2020 and spells trouble in the Electoral College, if this holds. Biden was up in 2020 by four points in the national vote and barely made it in the official count in the Electoral College. Now, the RCP polling has Trump up 1.7, a more than five-point difference.
Now, what does that mean for the Electoral College and the math?
With the light pink "leans" of Georgia and North Carolina, Trump has 251 to Harris' 226. The tans are the toss-ups/battleground states -- Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
If you look at the math, Republicans only need 19, Democrats need 44, assuming the map holds.
Democrats still have fewer ways than Republicans to 270. Democrats have three possible winning combinations. They absolutely have to have Pennsylvania. Republicans have five, and all they need to do is win Pennsylvania, if they hold onto the "leans" in Georgia and North Carolina. Hence, why Pennsylvania is so important.
How is Trump doing in the battleground states now? Bottom line? It doesn't look good for Harris at this point, with the latest report. Trump is ahead or tied except in one state in a new nine-state survey by Redfield and Wilton:
While the Democrats may be trying to create a groundswell over Harris, right now that's more smoke and mirrors than anything else. This is before she even faces any real attacks/ads against her for all her issues; this is in the "honeymoon bloom" period." She may get another bounce after their convention -- assuming she is picked and/or the protests against the Democrats don't completely throw the convention into chaos.
The point is despite all the machinations, the Democrats are still down with Kamala. Going forward, she isn't going to fare well when it comes to the issues that people care about and how she covered up Biden's cognitive decline, as the GOP pounds those points home.
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