(Kitco News) – Gold has had a breakout year as the yellow metal surged to new heights above $2,500 while its grey counterpart, silver, has struggled to keep pace, but that could soon change, according to one analyst, as silver demand is expected to increase thanks to one new technological development from Samsung.
According to retired investment professional Kevin Bambrough, Samsung has developed a new solid-state (SS) battery. The inclusion of silver as a key component, combined with the increasing demand for electric vehicles, means that demand for the grey metal will soon increase.
“The key drivers that will ramp up demand for EVs are range, charge time, battery life and safety,” Bambrough said. “Samsung's new solid-state battery technology, incorporating a silver-carbon (Ag-C) composite layer for the anode, exemplifies this advancement. Silver's exceptional electrical conductivity and stability are leveraged to enhance battery performance and durability, achieving amazing benchmarks like a 600-mile range and a 20-year lifespan and 9-minute charge.”
He noted that while official numbers are currently unavailable, estimates show that there could be as much as five grams of silver per cell in Samsung's solid-state batteries, meaning “a typical EV battery pack containing around 200 cells for a 10 kWh capacity could require about 1 kg of silver per vehicle.”
“With global car production standing at about 80 million vehicles per year, if 20% of these vehicles (16 million EVs) were to adopt Samsung's solid-state batteries, the annual demand for silver would be around 16,000 metric tons (16 million vehicles * 1 kg of silver per vehicle),” Bambrough said. “This would represent a significant portion of the current global silver production, which is approximately 25,000 metric tons annually, highlighting the substantial impact on the silver market.”
He noted that this alone presents a bullish trajectory for silver and doesn’t even account for demand from the solar industry.
“Add in the fact that silver is already in a deficit with industrial demand from the solar industry pushing total yearly consumption ahead of supply,” he said. “So we don’t even have any silver capacity to spare!”
Bambrough provided some caveats to his thesis, saying, “Perhaps 5 grams might be high. Perhaps 20% will prove low for solid-state battery penetration into the auto industry. It could be as much as 50% or greater looking 10-15 years out.”
“For me, it’s just another reason to expect silver markets to tighten up [further] and the price of silver to take a run at its all-time inflation-adjusted high [of] $200/oz will likely be seen in the [coming] 10-15 years,” he said. “If estimates of the true short position bullion banks currently carry in the silver market that price could be seen much sooner.”
“All one needs to do is look back at the silver chart of the 1970s to see how explosive the precious metal can move skyward when a true shortage develops and speculators decide to hoard,” he concluded. “My bet is… we will hoard.”
According to a report written by Enrico Punsalang at Ride Apart, Samsung is already working with big automakers to incorporate its SS battery tech into EVs in development. The firm has signed an agreement with Toyota to begin mass production of SS batteries in 2027, with Lexus vehicles scheduled to be among the first to integrate the new technology.
Punsalang noted that one thing that will hinder a faster roll-out of SS battery-enabled EVs is the fact that “these ultra-fast charging batteries require some pretty solid infrastructure for you to get the claimed nine-minute charge time. If we look at China, whose EV makers offer similar charging speeds, 480kW and sometimes even 600kW chargers are an absolute must. But even in China, charging stations of this capacity are far and few in between.”
“So the real challenge here isn’t so much whether or not it’s possible – we know that it certainly is – but rather, how quickly ultra-fast-charging infrastructure can be made available to the masses,” Punsalang said. “Then, of course, there’s the issue of cost. At present, it costs way more to manufacture solid-state EV batteries than Lithium-ion and LFP batteries found in current EVs – around three or four times, to be specific. Perhaps that’s why Toyota plans on introducing solid-state batteries on its Lexus vehicles first, where profit margins are much higher.”
“At the end of the day, the advancement of solid-state batteries is a good thing for everyone,” he concluded. “Sure, at the moment, they’re super expensive and require specialized tech to make the most out of. But less than 20 years ago, SSDs were super expensive and HDDs were the norm. But now, even boomers have SSDs in their laptops and home computers. Who’s to say that in the next 20 years, or maybe even less, SS batteries will be the standard for EVs?”
According to Charlie Morris, founder of ByteTree, this development sets the stage for silver to have a 2010-like rally.
“This reminds me of the silver rally of 2010, which saw the price surge to $50 on the back of demand for solar panels,” he said. “The slump that followed was weighed down not only by a weak gold market but also by substitution, something that has killed many commodity rallies.”
“Yet the EV bull story is here and now, and if solid-state EV batteries can invigorate the crowd, silver is onto a winner,” Morris said. “The silver price basically matches gold, but goes further, not just in bull markets, but whenever there’s a good story. I like this one.”
And with the need for a ramp-up in the ultra-fast-charging infrastructure, several other metals are expected to see an uptick in demand, which could lead to price increases.
“Based on material type, the global EV charging station raw materials market is segmented into metals & alloys and polymers,” said a report from Meticulous Research. “In 2024, the metals & alloys segment is expected to account for the larger share of over 60% of the global EV charging station raw materials market.”
“This segment’s large market share can be attributed to the surge in electric vehicle adoption, increasing investments and initiatives by electric mobility stakeholders to deploy wireless EV charging systems, and increasing government initiatives aimed at promoting the use of EVs,” the report said. “Metals and alloys possess the essential physical and aesthetic properties necessary for manufacturers to meet design and operational standards for electric vehicles and charging stations at optimal prices. Among these, stainless steel, aluminum, copper, nickel, and titanium are the most utilized raw materials within the electric mobility ecosystem.
Meticulous Research also noted that “DC fast-charging” stations are “projected to register the highest CAGR” between 2024 and 2031. “The growth of this segment can be attributed to increasing government initiatives aimed at installing fast-charging stations, rebates offered on the purchase of DC fast-charging stations, rising investments from automakers in the development of DC fast-charging station infrastructure to support their long-range battery electric vehicles, and the superior charging speed provided by DC fast charges compared to level 1 and level 2 charging stations.”
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