Nate Silver's New Election Forecast Helps Explain Why Dems and Media Are Readying the Excuses
http://twitchy.com/dougp/2024/09/04/nate-silvers-new-election-forecast-helps-explain-why-dems-and-media-are-readying-excuses-n2400521
As we told you earlier, there are signs that the Democrats and media know the "excitement" about the Kamala Harris and Tim Walz campaign is either waning or was never there in the first place.
Erick Erickson (@EWErickson) ~ If Harris were really winning, I don't think she'd be campaigning in Virginia, New Hampshire, and Minnesota two months before the election.
Also likely to be contributing to some Democrat panic is Nate Silver's forecast that shows Harris' slipping back down post-convention:
InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) ~ Latest @NateSilver538 forecast (9/3)
Chance of winning
🟥 Trump: 56.7% (highest since 7/31)
🟦 Harris: 43.0%
——
Swing States: chance of winning
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Georgia - 🔴 Trump 64-36%
Arizona - 🔴 Trump 67-33%
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump 70-30%
Nevada - 🔴 Trump 57-43%
Michigan - 🔵 Harris 51-49%
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris 53-47%
——
@Polymarket
odds
🟥 Trump: 51%
🟦 Harris: 47%
Polymarket swing states odds 👇
http://polymarket.com/elections
Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) ~ Trump now up by nearly two touchdowns in Nate Silver's forecast. This is after a five-week media coronation of Kamala Harris. If you're that campaign, you should be very worried.
ThePersistence (@ScottPresler) ~ Those Pennsylvania numbers make me very happy. Let’s keep registering new Republican voters across PA.
Joe Kernen (@JoeSquawk) ~ Look for the TDS to go off the charts if this continues.
The Left's TDS is already off the charts, so if this continues it would go so far off the charts you'd need a telescope to see it.
The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted. ~ D.H. Lawrence