According to the latest polling from Democracy Institute, former President Donald Trump has opened a three-point national lead over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris and a five-point lead in the ten key battleground states that will decide who becomes our next president.
“Donald Trump appears to be gaining serious momentum in 10 key battleground states,” reports Daily Express US, who commissioned the poll. “Data from the Democracy Institute shows the Republican Presidential hopeful is favored by [a] five percentage point lead over Kamala Harris – at 50 percent to 45 percent.”
The battleground poll was taken on August 28 and 29 and surveyed 1,000 likely voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin.
The national poll surveyed 1,200 likely voters over the same period.
The timing of the poll doesn’t tell us much. Only half was taken after Kamala’s disastrous CNN interview. Also, Kamala’s incredibly stupid and venal attack on 13 Gold Star families over the weekend is not included in the results.
This poll is also a bit of an outlier, but not by much. Rasmussen has Trump up two nationally. The latest poll from Fox News has Trump up one. In the RealClearPolitics average poll of national polls, Kamala enjoys a 1.9-point lead, well below where Hillary Clinton was on this same day in 2016 (+3.9) and where Biden was on this same day in 2020 (+7).
In the RealClearPolitics average poll of battleground state polls, Harris is only up by +0.2 percent. The Democracy Institute poll shows Trump +5, which is quite a disparity. What’s interesting, though, is that the Democracy Institute poll includes three states the RealClear average poll doesn’t—Minnesota, New Hampshire, and Virginia. You would think that with those states included, Kamala would post an even wider lead than Real Clear’s average. After all, she polls much better in those three states than in the seven battleground states RealClear follows.
Then again, with about 60 days to go, Kamala is visiting New Hampshire today, and where the candidates visit in this final sprint will tell us a lot more about what their internal polling shows than anything else. What’s more, Kamala’s running mate, serial liar Tim “Stolen Valor” Walz is campaigning in Minnesota today.
New Hampshire and Minnesota should be safe states for Harris.
Harris and Walz visiting New Hampshire and Minnesota today would be like Trump and running mate JD Vance visiting Ohio and Florida.
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