A brand new poll shows that former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris in five of the seven crucial swing states, which will be crucial in deciding who wins the election.
According to an AtlasIntel survey of likely voters in battleground states, Trump leads in Pennsylvania (51 percent to 48.1) and Michigan (50.6 percent to 47.2).
The former president is also in a “narrow” lead in the states that are in doubt: Arizona (49.8 percent to 48.6), Georgia (49.6 percent to 49), and Wisconsin (49.7 percent to 48.2). This information was provided by AtlasIntel. In Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7) and North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1), Harris is ahead. (That's odd. The chart below shows Trump winning Nevada. - De)
538 voters chose AtlasIntel as the most reliable polling organization for the 2020 presidential contest. If the Republican takes the five battleground states that he presently leads in their polling, with Harris at 248 Electoral College votes, Trump would win the 2024 election with 290 Electoral College votes.
Between September 20 and 25, AtlastIntel conducted polls, with a margin of error of two to three percentage points.
Reacting to the poll results, a Trump spokesperson told Newsweek: “Americans are sick and tired of Kamala Harris and her failed policies that have led to skyrocketing inflation, an out-of-control border- and rampant crime that terrorizes communities. She is weak, failed, and dangerously liberal, and the American people know a fraud when they see one.”
According to the AtlasIntel poll, Trump would prevail in two of Harris’s most important “blue wall” battleground states.
Barring any unexpected outcomes elsewhere, Harris only has to win the three blue wall swing states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan to receive the 270 Electoral College votes needed to win the election.
In this case, Harris would also have to win the Electoral College in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, which polls indicate she is likely to do.
In the four years that followed, Joe Biden successfully flipped the 2nd Congressional District of Nebraska, which Trump had won in 2016. The only two states that do not use a winner-take-all method for allocating Electoral College votes are Maine and Nebraska.
In November, Trump will have enough votes to be proclaimed the winner even if he only wins Georgia, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
In addition, Trump might prevail by defeating Harris in the four swing states of the Sun Belt: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada; he might also win if he flips just one of Wisconsin or Michigan.
Some new polling data from firms that have been reliable in the past show former President Donald Trump on pace to potentially win a “landslide” electoral victory over Vice President Kamala Harris.
Polling data from Trafalgar Group and Insider Advantage now indicates that Trump is positioned for a potential landslide victory in the 2024 presidential election. The latest polling shows Trump with a commanding lead in several key battleground states, suggesting a solid path to victory in November.
The updated electoral map projects Trump with 296 electoral votes, compared to Kamala Harrisโs 226. Notably, Trump is making gains in swing states like Pennsylvania (+2.2), Michigan (+2.2), and Wisconsin (+1.1), which were pivotal in previous elections. These states, typically leaning Democratic in close contests, seem to be shifting in favor of the former president.
In Arizona and North Carolina, Trump leads by one point, while Nevada and Georgia remain highly competitive.
Trafalgarโs data suggests a dead heat in Georgia, a state that has been hotly contested by both parties in recent elections.
Senate odds, which show a 73% chance of Republicans taking back control of the upper chamber and significantly changing the political climate in Washington, further support the change.
In addition to the polling data, political prediction markets are beginning to show increasing confidence in Trumpโs chances.
Polymarket, one of the largest prediction markets globally, currently indicates that Trump has a 49% chance of winning the presidency, a significant increase from previous months.
Despite her status as the current vice president, Harris appears to be losing ground, particularly in traditionally Democratic strongholds like Michigan and Wisconsin.
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