Early vote trends in swing states favor of former President Donald Trump and suggest “the election will be over on election day before we know who votes,” political analyst Mark Halperin said Tuesday on The Morning Meeting.
The trends will likely cause the Harris campaign to hit the panic button in the coming days with increased heated rhetoric meant to drive turnout among its supporters.
Halperin, an analyst who attempts to report data without spin, said the early vote in Nevada and North Carolina looks strong for Trump, which is far “more important than the polls right now.” Surveys show Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump virtually tied in all seven battleground states.
In Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, Republicans’ early vote trends look strong:
“We don’t know exactly who’s casting these ballots, how they’re voting, etc. But every analyst I’ve talked to in the last 24 hours, including people who speak publicly, say, ‘If this continues, Donald Trump can’t lose because the Democrats can’t possibly do well enough on election day,'” Halperin explained.
The 2020 election is a difficult benchmark to extrapolate to date, but the data appears to be in favor of Trump, Halperin added:
“What could be causing democratic underperformance here?” Halperin asked Dan Turrentine, a Democrat show cohost.
“It’s a great question, and no doubt in Wilmington, they are frantically trying to figure that out,” Turrentine replied. “If you look at, not just in Nevada, but so far, Democrats are underperforming in Philadelphia and Atlanta, and now we’re seeing Las Vegas.”
Turrentine added the Harris campaign appears to be struggling with Latinos, black men, and young voters. “It appears that those problems have not been solved,” he explained.
“Things like this, you know, give you a little bit of heartburn. And at the same time, Mark, as you said, Nevada is supposed to be, you know, one of our best states. And so it appears that some of our base voters are not very energized right now,” Turrentine concluded.
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