Consider the following, entirely plausible, scenario: It's a full week after the election, and it turns out the electorate had been just a little bit bluer than it really was this year. Not blue, mind you, just a notch bluer, in a handful of places. Let's say Kamala Harris had performed a few points better in Pennsylvania and Michigan, carrying both, and Trump had narrowly held on in Wisconsin. Let's also say that North Carolina and Georgia had swiveled to the right, as they did. With everything else staying exactly the same, out West, Arizona and Nevada are significantly closer -- with outcomes still undetermined. Trump would have collected 261 electoral votes by this point, nine short of clinching the presidency. Harris would be sitting on 260. Both would want to take Nevada, of course, but the only real prize would be Arizona's 11 electoral votes, the winner of which would become president. And under this same hypothetical, let's stipulate that Arizona would be on track for a 2020-level 'photo finish.' For reference, Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump by three-tenths of a percentage point last cycle, with a margin of just over 10,000 votes, out of more than three million cast.
In such a situation, every ballot 'dump' and count update, arriving at frustratingly irregular intervals, would be scrutinized heavily. Conspiracies and allegations would bloom. With everything on the line, the weight of the world would come down upon a handful of state-level officials, with frantic, high-stakes litigation drawing out and dragging down the process. The eventual losers would cling to any number of adverse abnormalities or judicial decisions as the reason why they didn't really lose an 'illegitimate' election. The process would take not just days, but quite possibly weeks, a destabilizing circus that would undermine already-low public trust in institutions. If this sounds remotely far-fetched, you may have slept through the post-election environment four years ago -- and you've certainly forgotten 2000's Florida debacle.
I don't believe the federal government should necessarily dictate to states how to administer their elections, but voters of all stripes should demand better than the insane, embarrassing, confidence-crushing systems we see in slow-counting states -- Arizona, Nevada, and California, to name a few of the worst culprits. I tweeted this over the weekend, and the general lesson still applies:
The margins were such that the presidential and Senate races could be called (still days late), but under the scenario laid out above, tighter contests could be dragging this out, with the winner of the presidency of the United States still in question. Indeed, even as it stands, as of this writing, several news outlets still haven't called a number of crucial House elections in Arizona and California, with control of Congress' lower chamber hanging in the balance. Hundreds of thousands of votes have yet to be counted in the former state; it's millions in the latter. Yes, a full week after the election, at least one out of every four ballots in California remains uncounted. In 2022, it took eight days for Republican control of the House to be called, largely thanks to the same culprits. This should be unacceptable. Setting aside Florida's example, the United Kingdom successfully and rapidly counted tens of millions of votes in its national election over the summer. Most, but not all, of those ballots were cast on Election Day itself.
But Florida has demonstrated how even quite a lot of early and mail-in balloting can be accommodated without ludicrously drawn-out counting procedures. Maintaining outdated, inefficient, idiotic systems in place is a choice. How can that choice be justified? Here's a spokesman for Florida's governor rebutting the excuses made by an Arizonan:
Fortunately, this year's presidential election was decisive, so the hypothetical scenario mentioned above didn't play out. But it's not a stretch to envision how things could have been very different, under slightly tweaked circumstances. Why maintain terrible protocols when unambiguously superior ones are freely available for adoption? Leaders who resist constructive, apolitical, democracy-fortifying improvements should have to explain why.
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