Reports from the Middle East indicate that the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad has fallen, with the dictator fleeing the country as rebel forces entered the capital city of Damascus.
Unconfirmed social media reports also suggest that Assad’s plane crashed.
The sudden collapse of the Assad regime, dating back over half a century to the rule of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar’s father, has rocked the Middle East and could mean the Iranian regime, a Syrian ally, is in danger.
Assad was one of the most notorious tyrants in the world, one who used chemical weapons against his own people. His regime nearly fell in the civil war that erupted during the Arab Spring in 2011, but he was shored up by Russian and Iranian forces.
President Vladimir Putin used Syria to restore Russia’s presence in the Middle East for the first time since the Cold War, while Iran used Syria as a conduit to Hezbollah in Lebanon, sending weapons and advisers.
Assad had bombed rebel-held cities with no regard for civilian life, and torturing suspected rebels and dissidents. President Barack Obama drew a “red line” in 2012 when he said the U.S. would intervene militarily if Assad used chemical weapons, but then failed to act.
President Donald Trump launched airstrikes against the regime in 2017 after a chemical weapons attack, firing nearly 60 cruise missiles at Syrian air bases, which had the intended effect.
Trump reduced the U.S. troop presence in Syria, though small forces remained to counter threats from the so-called “Islamic State,” or ISIS, which still operated in the country. Turkey also had an interest in Syria, targeting Kurdish militias operating in Syrian territory.
But Assad remained in power, thanks to Russia and Iran. Iran used Hezbollah forces from Lebanon to defend the regime, and they were accused of carrying out atrocities against Sunni regions.
The Syrian rebels — including radical Islamist forces affiliated with Al Qaeda — remained relatively weak. But the Third Lebanon War, which Hezbollah started by firing at Israeli cities after the Hamas terror attack of October 7, 2023, saw Hezbollah weakened and its supply lines disrupted.
In the wake of the ceasefire in Lebanon, the Syrian rebels, emboldened by Hezbollah’s apparent defeat, began making rapid advances, meeting with little resistance.
Russia, tied down by the war in Ukraine, was apparently unable (or unwilling) to intervene. Iran reportedly sent new military advisers, but also evacuated Iranian militias and personnel from the country.
Assad was reported to have pulled his forces back to Damascus for a last stand, but there were reports of defections from his army as the rebels approached. The rebels appear to have used social media successfully to project strength and encourage surrender.
There were concerns about the fate of Assad’s chemical weapons stockpile, which a deal brokered by Obama was supposed to have eliminated (but did not). There were unconfirmed reports that Israel had recently attacked a chemical weapons depot in Syria in an attempt to prevent the materials from falling into rebel hands. The rebels, according to social media reports, have claimed they will not use such weapons; their credibility is uncertain at best.
There are also concerns about the fate of religious minorities in Syria, particularly Christians. Israel has taken steps to reinforce its military presence on the Syrian border, warning the rebels not to attack it. President-elect Donald Trump said Saturday that the U.S. should stay out of Syria, and the Biden administration said it has no plans to intervene.
For now, the world waits to learn Assad’s fate; to see who Syria’s new rulers will be; and to see whether Iran is next.
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