http://twitchy.com/samj/2024/12/24/greg-gutfeld-nate-silver-n2405669
If anyone needs to learn to read the room it is definitely Nate Silver. For example, if you're going to talk about how crime is actually down in New York City you might wait a day or even a week or two before saying so after a woman has been literally burned to DEATH on the subway by an illegal.
The timing is just not great here, Nate.
Nate Silver ( @NateSilver538 ) ~ NYC has a considerably lower crime rate than most large American cities. It's also a city of 8+ million where lots of crazy shit happens on a daily basis. I don't blame anyone for being concerned but it's sort of a test for whether you think in terms of narratives or base rates.
8:56 AM · Dec 23, 2024
There are many times when I disagree with Silver, but he's not unintelligent. But here, he's just being clueless.
GregGutfeld (@greggutfeld) ~ {Replying to @NateSilver538} "Sorry ma'am, your daughter was burned alive on a subway train by a maniac freely roaming the city, and while we understand your outrage - it shouldn't reflect poorly on the city's base rate of violence. Have a great day."
Two hits.
Greg 'hitting' Silver's post, Silver's post hitting the ground.
Pam D (@soirchick) ~ {Replying to @greggutfeld} It's wild how these big cities with Soros DA's and stripped down, emasculated police departments have lower crime rates, isn't it? I feel like statistical data is only as good as the info fed into it. GIGO.
Yep, and Silver, as a pollster, should understand flawed data better than most.
Vigorous Nudnik (@VNudnik) ~ {Replying to @greggutfeld} Nate Silver's latest "Well akshully ..." is right up there with "You're wrong about paying more at the grocery store. Look at this chart of economic data!"
Richard DeCamp (@richdecamp) ~ {Replying to @greggutfeld} Ouch.
Deservedly so.
SECRET SQUIRREL (@SecritSqrl) ~ {Replying to @greggutfeld} Listen up ... we realize some of you or your family members will die as a result of our immigration policies, and quite frankly, this is a sacrifice we are willing to make. ~ Democrats
So we know this 'squirrel' is being snarky and even a little facetious but sadly we could see this coming from our pals in the Democratic Party. True story. Their idea of sacrifice 'for the greater good' is never a good thing for Americans as they've proven for the past four years.
Thank God they lost in November.
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Hidden Numbers: When It Comes to Crime, Graphs Don’t Tell the Whole Story
http://twitchy.com/warren-squire/2024/12/23/nate-silver-downplays-new-york-subway-n2405627
A drastic drop in small crimes (like muggings, for example) can skew the numbers of much serious crimes like assault and murder. Overall crime may indeed be down, but that’s little comfort when the number of people being stabbed or gunned down in the street is way up.
Greg Roberts (@gurgun2024) ~ Does it matter much that the overall crime rate is down if the murder rate is up over 60%. Being mugged it bad, murdered worse.
http://nypost.com/2024/09/14/us-news/murders-soar-60-on-nyc-subways-nearing-record/
EducatëdHillbilly™ (@RobProvince) ~ Isn’t murder on the subway up over previous years?
Kyle (@TheMckenzieK) ~ That city is a dumpster fire, it’s wild to pretend otherwise.
People hate to have their genuine concerns ignored or dismissed, especially when they’re seeing crime in person and on TV.
Daniel Aldridge (@daaldridge) ~ Telling people that the reality they see and feel is not real because of “the science” or some leftist academic “studies” is a guaranteed political loser that drives people away from progressivism.
Internet Pundit (@punditocratic) ~ Homelessness and the mentally ill (they often intersect) is the biggest driver of this feeling. It may be true that crime is down statistically, but it’s going to be difficult to convince people that they’re safe if everywhere they walk has people sleeping in tents and doing drugs.
Alex (@Brazil201) ~ I mean there are more crazy homeless people than ever before on the subway, plus now the illegal immigrant mother who’s selling gum or candy with a toddler strapped to her back. Now, that’s not “crime,” but this is what people are tired of seeing and dealing with. Now, I assume at least half of this problem will be fixed with the mass deportation, which working class people do want.
CanLen (@CandiceLen) ~ I've lived in NYC since 2007 ... I don't think NYC since 2020 feels as "safe" as it did during Bloomberg. Everything wasn't locked behind partitions 5 years ago and midtown hotels weren't mini-slums. The scaffolding has gotten worse ... there is an issue with not enforcing the small stuff.
Bhu (@insearchofhumor) ~ If cops are looking the other way on “small stuff” ... and hence, excluding from reported stats ... it’s not apples to apples. It’s why public perception of safety is different from reported stats perhaps.
Danimal 320 (@danimal320) ~ If you’re burning alive on the subway or being shot in the back on your way to an investor meeting, then you might sense the disorder.
As mentioned, you have to add ‘crime fatigue’ into the mix as well, That’s where people no longer report certain crimes because it’s a waste of their time since they know police will do nothing. So, when people are telling you crime is getting worse, that they fear for their safety, and they’ve witnessed people gunned down or burned alive on their subways, don’t gaslight them and tell them it’s all in their imagination. The numbers aren’t the whole story.
The essential American soul is hard, isolate, stoic, and a killer. It has never yet melted. ~ D.H. Lawrence
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