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Msg. 02055 of 02351 |
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It's shaping up to be a cold, wet winter for most of you. I may be dodging a bullet, though with dry, sunny and not terribly cold days (ranging from a 29° high to a 6° low) through to the middle of the month. January is usually our coldest, snowiest month. Maybe not this time. Even though each layer of cold coming in may stop short of the most extreme conditions in the past 10-15 years, the number of days spent below the historical average will add up in dozens of states from just east of the Rockies to the Atlantic and Gulf coasts. “This could end up being the coldest January since 2011 for the U.S. as a whole,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok said. "The combination of lingering neutral sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, warm water in the northern Pacific and an atmospheric traffic jam will induce multiple rounds of Arctic air east of the Rockies," AccuWeather Long-Range Meteorologist Alex Duffus added. "The pattern creates a persistent southward lunge in the jet stream in eastern North America to allow the frigid air to empty out of the Arctic and into the central and eastern U.S." Another key factor as to how far to the south and east the extreme cold will be able to penetrate is that multiple storms are forecast to produce extensive swaths of snow and ice from the Great Plains to the Midwest, East and even well into the Southern states. Snow cover minimizes the warming effects of the ground and acts as a tundralike surface for the cold air to expand upon. "At this time, it looks like there will be at least three major blasts of Arctic air that will affect the Southern states," AccuWeather Meteorologist Alex DaSilva said. "The first outbreak will be from Jan. 3-4, the second on Jan. 7-8 and then the third round on Jan. 11-12." Additional rounds of Arctic air may follow but be directed more toward the Midwest and Northeast. In the southern U.S., exposed or poorly insulated homes and buildings are at high risk of frozen and bursting pipes with the potential for major water damage. The persistence and magnitude of the cold can be enough to cause heat pump systems to struggle to keep up. As energy demands increase, the strain on the electric grid could force rolling blackouts. Due to the magnitude and duration of freezing temperatures, cold-sensitive crops in the Gulf Coast states will be at risk from damage. "At this time, the areas that are likely to be most vulnerable for crop-damaging freezes will be in central and northern Florida, southern Louisiana and parts of central Texas," DaSilva said. "We are closely watching South Texas and South Florida for any indication of lower temperatures that could be damaging to agriculture." Much of the Great Lakes has little ice cover, leaving the exposed water to warm the Arctic air somewhat. However, persistent cold air will cause the ice cover to increase substantially. As the ice coverage increases, the warming effects of the Great Lakes will be reduced, opening up the Northeast to more exposure to extreme cold. As the frigid air passes over the Great Lakes, it will quickly pick up moisture and result in heavy to extreme bands of lake-effect snow that could bury some towns under feet of snow and massive drifts. As the bands of snow move around with shifting winds, the snow can move away and then come back in some areas multiple times during the approximately two-week period through the middle of the month. Over time, the subzero RealFeel Temperatures will reach east of the Appalachians and into the Gulf Coast region. The wavy nature of the Arctic air will be conducive to multiple winter storms across the central and eastern US, including a storm coming this weekend expected to unload areas of accumulating snow and ice. The storms will vary in intensity and cover, but at least a couple of them can be so extensive and heavy as to result in major travel disruptions. Snow and ice will occur in parts of the Southern states, and with limited winter storm fighting equipment, extended periods of dangerous travel and school closings could result. |
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