Grok 3 beta says
Egg prices have risen significantly more than chicken meat prices primarily due to differences in how bird flu has impacted the two industries, along with variations in supply elasticity and production cycles.
The ongoing outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly the H5N1 strain, has hit egg-laying hens much harder than chickens raised for meat (broilers). Since 2022, millions of egg-laying hens have been culled to prevent the spread of the virus—over 145 million birds in total, with a substantial portion being layers. For example, in December 2024 alone, 13.2 million egg-laying hens were lost. This has drastically reduced egg supply, driving prices up. A dozen Grade A large eggs reached an average of $5.90 in February 2025, a 96% increase over the past year, with some areas seeing prices as high as $10.
In contrast, chicken meat prices have remained relatively stable, rising less than 4% over the same period. Broilers, which are raised for meat, have been less affected by the outbreak. While bird flu has impacted some broiler flocks, the disease tends to spare younger birds, and the broiler industry’s massive scale—over 9.4 billion broilers annually in the U.S. compared to about 378.5 million egg-laying hens—means it can absorb losses more easily. Additionally, broilers have a much shorter production cycle, reaching market weight in 6-8 weeks, while egg-laying hens take 4-6 months to mature and begin producing eggs, with a laying cycle lasting over a year. This means egg supply takes far longer to recover after a culling, keeping prices elevated, whereas broiler supply can rebound quickly.
Another factor is supply elasticity. The egg market is less responsive to disruptions because replacing lost hens is slow, and there are no direct substitutes for eggs in many uses, like baking. This inelastic supply, paired with steady consumer demand—Americans eat about 280 eggs per person annually—pushes prices up sharply when supply drops. Chicken meat, however, has a more elastic supply due to the rapid turnover of broilers and the availability of substitutes like beef, pork, or turkey, which keeps price increases in check.
Other contributing factors include regional differences in production (broilers are concentrated in the warmer Southeast, where HPAI spreads less easily) and the impact of cage-free laws in states like California, which have tightened egg supply further by disproportionately affecting cage-free flocks hit by bird flu. Meanwhile, chicken meat production faces fewer such regulatory constraints.
In short, egg prices spiked due to severe bird flu losses, a slow recovery process, and inelastic supply, while chicken meat prices stayed stable thanks to a larger, faster-replenishing supply and less severe impact from the outbreak.
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