If the point of the tariffs is to get rid of foreign tariffs then Trump might as well get busy signing agreements, because I've read at least 40 countries have suddenly agreed to drop all tariffs on US originated goods. So, if that is the point, I would expect Trump to make some announcement of a "temporary pause" any time now, before the stock markets break down further.
BUT IF THE POINT IS TO BALANCE OUT THE TRADE DEFICIT, ZERO FOREIGN TARIFFS DON'T EVEN BEGIN TO ADDRESS THE PROBLEM. Because?
Because zero tariffs into a market doesn't mean the market is going to buy enough of our stuff to balance out the trade deficit. The goal of every country is to SELL more goods, not import more goods.
The buying of foreign goods is nearly 100% a function of sufficient and sufficiently motivated CONSUMERS WITH DISPOSABLE CASH who want a foreign product so much that the cash is burning a hole in their pockets.
Trump demonstrated he understood this distinction in a Playboy interview from the 1980s:
Playboy: A group of Japanese visitors to New York was recently asked if there were anything in the U.S. they would like to buy. The answer: towels.
Trump: That’s fair trade: They’ll take the towels and we’ll buy their cars. It doesn’t sound like a good deal to me. They have totally outsmarted the American politician; they have no respect for us, because they’re getting a free ride.
Of course, it’s not just the Japanese or the Europeans—the Saudis, the Kuwaitis walk all over us.
As someone said about that interview: "Control-F "tariff" in that interview, and it's not there. Why should it be? The point isn't Japan's tariffs; the point is we're buying their stuff and they're not buying ours."
So, unless Trump and his team are playing a different game than I hope and think, dropping foreign tariffs is NOT the ticket. US tariffs are 100% based on trade deficits per country.
So, stocks going WAY lower seems likely in the cards although fear of a full on US stock market crash and major recession may (or may not) be a concern of Trump.
The US needs a trade balance, tens of thousands of new factories built, and tens of millions of factory jobs returned. You have to build the factories and train the employees, in the right industries, and develop compelling products before you can even begin to balance out trade deficits. Foreign tariffs or not, we have next to nothing to export that the world needs that badly.
So, the US tariffs need to remain, I think. And, actually, I think they need to remain PERMANENTLY.
This is very interesting. And very dangerous. And very necessary that we undertake the dangerous journey with clear heart and head.
| 
