Looking at the 2012 electoral map
Mitt Romney's victory in Iowa last night may not have been very impressive, but it still increases the chances he will emerge as the Republican nominee in the end and that makes it worth taking a first look at the 2012 electoral map.
Over the course of 2011 PPP did at least 2 polls in 15 major swing states. Here's how the Obama/Romney numbers averaged out, from the places where Obama's strongest to where he's weakest:
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/
Note: I'm excluding 2 polls from these averages: a Virginia poll right after the killing of Osama bin Laden and an Ohio poll conducted of likely voters for the November referendum election. The referendum drew out a likely voter pool that's probably different from who will come out this November and polls taken right after the bin Laden killing are not a realistic gauge of where Obama stands right now.
If you go strictly by the averages Obama's in pretty good shape for reelection. Ceding Indiana (which we can't poll) to Romney, Obama gets 337 electoral votes to 195 for Romney with the 6 for Nevada on the table.
Here's the thing though: our polls and probably everyone's polls are actually worse for Obama than they look right now. That's because a disproportionate number of the undecideds in Obama/Romney polling are Republicans. Romney's not their first choice for the nomination so they're being stubborn and saying they're undecided for the general, even though it's pretty much a certainty that they'll end up voting for the GOP nominee in the end.
DO SOMETHING!
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