Reatil investors just know they will get screwed again.
Trading in the United States stock market has not only failed to recover since the 2008 financial crisis, it has continued to fall. In April, the average daily trades in American stocks on all exchanges stood at nearly half of its peak in 2008: 6.5 billion compared with 12.1 billion, according to Credit Suisse Trading Strategy.
The decline stands in marked contrast to past economic recoveries, when Americans regained their taste for stock trading within two years of economic shocks in 1987 and 2001.
This time around, the stock market has many more players, including high-speed trading firms, which have recently come to account for over half of all stock market activity. But even they, like all other major groups, have recently been doing less overall trading.
“When you keep in mind recent history, this is kind of uncharted territory,” said Justin Schack, an analyst at Rosenblatt Securities.
Many market experts say the biggest reason for the shrinking volume is that traders and investors remain leery that the economy will suddenly turn on them in the wake of the financial crisis, the wild swings in stock prices and the European debt troubles.
Investors and financial industry professionals are struggling to understand what the decline could mean, particularly if it continues. Less rapid trading by short-term speculators could be a good thing for buy-and-hold investors tired of being burned by the market. But the decline could also signal a broader turn away from the domestic stock market by investors who want to hold less of their nest eggs in stocks and by companies that opt for raising capital in bond markets instead of issuing shares.
“My expectation was that we would see people go back to the stock market,” said Charles Rotblut, a vice president of the American Association of Individual Investors. “It remains to be seen whether there will be a core group of people that is just turned off of the stock markets altogether.”
The New York-based system of stock trading has been showing the strain of the slowdown. The New York Stock Exchange said last week that trading in the first quarter fell 23 percent from a year earlier. A few days earlier, Nasdaq announced that its first-quarter revenues from stock trading in the United States were down 7 percent from a year ago. Both exchange companies have aggressively moved to capture other businesses that do not rely on stock trading, but they have also embarked on cost-cutting programs.
“We can’t be certain as to when or whether the volume is going to recover,” said Lee Shavel, chief financial officer at the Nasdaq OMX Group.
The recent slowdown has occurred not only on the nation’s 13 official exchanges and trading platforms. Dozens of off-exchange operations have captured a larger proportion of all stock trades in recent years, but even their overall trading numbers have been trending down.
The decline in trading has not sent the prices of stocks down. Though there is less buying and selling, the people who have remained in the market are willing to pay higher prices, driving the value of the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index up 102 percent since the market hit a bottom in the spring of 2009.
But the recent falloff in trading is striking because data from the New York Stock Exchange shows that volumes have not declined for three consecutive years in records going back to 1960. For an explanation of the lower trading volumes, many market-watchers have looked to the high-speed traders, who use computers algorithms to take advantage of small price discrepancies and who have accounted for an increasing share of all trading in recent years.
These firms have been curtailed slightly by recent regulations aimed at making the markets less volatile. But more fundamentally, industry participants say high-speed traders rely on transacting with slower, traditional traders like retail investors and mutual funds. When those groups pull back, the high-speed firms have little choice but to scale back as well.
“On a typical trade, two high-frequency trading firms will not trade against each other,” said Manoj Narang. His New Jersey high-speed trading firm, Tradeworx, is still growing, he said, but for most established firms, if ordinary investors “don’t want to trade, there’s really simply nothing for us to do.”
Among retail investors, the most reliable source of trading volume has been the day traders who were given access to cheaper trading by discount brokers like E*Trade and TD Ameritrade.
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