After Muffin's editorial to let the auto industry go bankrupt, I don't see how he picks up Michigan.
Pennsylvania gets swing state downgrade
By CHARLES MAHTESIAN |
6/1/12 11:17 AM EDT
It’s only June, but already Pennsylvania seems to be getting downgraded as a swing state.
National Journal’s Alex Roarty observed Thursday that “evidence is mounting that one traditional battleground state isn't a top target for the Romney campaign: Pennsylvania.”
Today, the NBC News Battleground map has moved Pennsylvania from Toss-up status to Lean Dem, which seems to confirm the zeitgeist surrounding the state.
Why the Pennsylvania move when the current polling suggests that Obama has just a modest lead over Romney? The Romney camp simply isn’t spending the money or building the organization; the state appears to be lower on their target list than others, at least for now. The way Republicans are treating Pennsylvania is akin to how Democrats appear to be treating Missouri.
The NBC and National Journal assessments come after a New York Times report Wednesday that the Romney campaign “is placing a priority on winning Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia and then picking up one ‘wild card’ state from a group that includes Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire and Wisconsin.”
The inclusion of Michigan and the absence of Pennsylvania from that list is notable because of the structural similarities between the two shrinking Rust Belt states – labor plays a muscular political role in both places; the once-Republican big city suburbs have gone wobbly; the GOP must contend with a Democratic behemoth in the southeastern corner of the state, etc.
The two states have also moved in tandem over the past two decades or so, with GOP strength waning until 2010, when Republicans posted huge gains in both states and recaptured the governorship after an 8-year drought.
There’s one big difference this year, though, that’s coloring the Romney campaign thinking – the candidate’s ties to Michigan, which suggest it’s more attainable this November than Pennsylvania.
That remains to be seen, but it’s worth noting that in the last four presidential elections Pennsylvania has been the more competitive of the pair. While both states voted exactly the same way in 2004 and 2000 -- 51 percent to 48 percent and 51-46 -- in 2008, Barack Obama won Michigan in a 16-percentage point blowout (57-41). In Pennsylvania, the margin was 11 points (55-44).
And back in 1996, when Bill Clinton won by 13 points in Michigan (52-39), Pennsylvania was again closer, with Clinton winning by 9 points (49-40).
http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/06/pennsylvania-gets-swing-state-downgrade-125022.html
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