How about this explanation? People who HATE polls and pollsters, taking every poll offered and LYING.
I'm a dependable socialist Obummer supporter, if you ask the pollsters at CNN. Pew thinks I've shredded more little girls than clo and OCU combined. At 'The Hill,' they think I'm a gay, black Mormon. And for some reason, I've been getting a lot of phone calls from one of the local imams, sounding me out about how I'd like to get my 72 virgins a little bit SOONER than Allāh initially intended.
I've been lying to pollsters for years. See, they all have a certain margin for error based on SAMPLING SIZE. They have no margin for error based on respondents who intentionally deceive. I figure the polls are messing up our democracy. I have NO problem doing what I can to screw with them.
Perhaps my philosophy is spreading.
By the way, this piece was written by MOLLY BALL. Poor kid. I bet she took a lot of crap about that when she was young. What sort of parents would saddle their daughter with a name that sounds like a P.E. sport? Perhaps Molly was able to get find a little comfort in evening discussions with her siblings RACE and HEATHER...
What Was the Problem With the Wisconsin Exit Polls?
By Molly Ball
The Atlantic
Jun 7 2012
Leaked early exit data briefly gave Democrats hope they'd won the recall Tuesday night. How could a survey of the real electorate be so far off?
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The early exits put the race between Scott Walker and Tom Barrett tied, 50-50, sending reporters, operatives, and, most of all, Democrats into a tizzy.
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Within less than an hour, the networks would start to call the race for Walker in what quickly became apparent as a blowout win. It turned out that the only thing the early exit polls showed was that the early exit polls were wrong -- as they have been so many times before. Remember 2004, when early, leaked exits had the left prematurely inaugurating a President Kerry?
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Why are the early exits wrong? There are many possible reasons. First, like any survey, an exit poll is a random sample that carries a margin for error. Second, different people may be voting in the morning than later in the day, and some people may be more inclined to talk to an exit pollster than others. (For whatever reason, Blumenthal says, both these groups seem to lean Democratic, giving early exits a consistent leftward tilt.) Finally, the raw data from the exit survey gets crunched with the actual electorate that shows up in the official returns, and the sample gets adjusted to reflect the result.
More: http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/06/what-was-the-problem-with-the-wisconsin-exit-polls/258191/
Gold is $1,581/oz today. When it hits $2,000, it will be up 26.5%. Let's see how long that takes. - De 3/11/2013 - ANSWER: 7 Years, 5 Months
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